Vox50%

Is the Iran war back on for real? 59%

By Andrew Prokop45%

7/13/2026, 2:20:00 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 24 faulty reasoning types, including Fundamental Attribution Error, Overconfidence Bias, and Ambiguity (Equivocation), with Post Hoc (False Cause) as the most egregious example at 22.7% saturation with 96 hits. Analysis detected 973 faulty-reasoning hits from 423 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 55.3% and a BS Rank of 59% (9,061 of 21,887 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 58.60% of the article peer group.

This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. 
Subscribe here. 
Welcome to The Logoff: President Donald Trump followed days of intense US strikes on Iran by declaring the US is taking charge of the Strait of Hormuz  and demanding payments of 20 percent of the value of all cargo shipped through it. 
What happened to the ceasefire? 
Last week, the hazy ceasefire deal that the US and Iran struck in mid-June fell apart, as Iran attacked several oil tankers traversing the strait. 
The US responded by striking more than 300 targets in Iran and reimposing sanctions. 
Iran resumed attacks on US bases in the Gulf as well. 
So what did Trump say now? 
On Monday morning, Trump said that he was reinstating the US’s naval blockade on Iran and declared the US to be “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT.” 
Trump further declared that the US “will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job.” 
What’s the context? 
Since Trump launched the war in February, Iran’s most effective response has been the attacks on ships that effectively “closed” the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil corridor  posing the risk of a major spike in oil prices. 
Trump has made his deep desire to reopen the strait obvious. 
But Iran has been unwilling to give up this leverage so easily: It has asserted the right to charge fees for passage  and to fire on ships that don’t play ball. 
So Trump is essentially saying, You don’t take me hostage; I’ll take you hostage (since Iran also needs to ship oil through the strait). 
And in typical Trumpian fashion, he wants to take a percentage for the US. 
Is the war fully back on? 
Things don’t look good right now, but both sides have emphasized that talks are still ongoing. 
But though Trump clearly isn’t eager for a return to full-scale conflict, he may feel emboldened by the fact that the world adapted surprisingly well to the strait’s closure earlier this year. 
And with that, it’s time to log off… 
Have you listened to Unexplainable, the great Vox podcast delving into scientific mysteries? 
Well, you can now watch it: Starting today, it’s on Netflix! 
Episode 1, “Are you a lyric person or a music person?”, is live. 
(I’m most definitely a music person.) 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 14.9%Andrew Prokop: 4.9%Vox: 4.5%Confirmation Bias14.9%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.5%Vox: 0.5%Anchoring Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 3.4%Vox: 3.0%Availability Heuristic0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.7%Vox: 1.2%Representativeness Heuristic0.0%This article: 7.6%Andrew Prokop: 2.0%Vox: 1.4%Hindsight Bias7.6%This article: 19.4%Andrew Prokop: 1.8%Vox: 2.2%Overconfidence Bias19.4%This article: 3.3%Andrew Prokop: 9.6%Vox: 5.9%Framing Effect3.3%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.8%Vox: 0.4%Loss Aversion0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.5%Vox: 0.4%Status Quo Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.3%Vox: 0.2%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.6%Vox: 2.0%Optimism Bias0.0%This article: 5.7%Andrew Prokop: 1.3%Vox: 2.3%Pessimism Bias5.7%This article: 7.8%Andrew Prokop: 7.7%Vox: 6.7%Negativity Bias7.8%This article: 4.7%Andrew Prokop: 1.2%Vox: 0.8%Self-Serving Bias4.7%This article: 21.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.6%Vox: 1.1%Fundamental Attribution Error21.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.3%Vox: 0.2%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.6%Vox: 1.3%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 7.6%Andrew Prokop: 0.6%Vox: 0.6%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias7.6%This article: 3.1%Andrew Prokop: 1.4%Vox: 1.2%Halo Effect3.1%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.0%Vox: 0.1%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.0%Vox: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 11.3%Andrew Prokop: 1.8%Vox: 1.3%Recency Bias11.3%This article: 2.6%Andrew Prokop: 0.3%Vox: 0.3%Primacy Effect2.6%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.1%Vox: 0.1%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 3.3%Andrew Prokop: 1.0%Vox: 1.1%Ad Hominem3.3%This article: 5.7%Andrew Prokop: 0.7%Vox: 0.8%Straw Man5.7%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 2.1%Vox: 3.2%Appeal to Authority0.0%This article: 9.0%Andrew Prokop: 2.2%Vox: 2.0%False Dilemma9.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.0%Vox: 1.6%Slippery Slope0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.1%Vox: 0.1%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 5.7%Vox: 6.2%Hasty Generalization0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.5%Vox: 0.2%Red Herring0.0%This article: 3.1%Andrew Prokop: 0.9%Vox: 0.5%Bandwagon3.1%This article: 9.2%Andrew Prokop: 3.5%Vox: 3.9%Appeal to Emotion9.2%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.1%Vox: 0.9%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 22.7%Andrew Prokop: 4.9%Vox: 3.3%Post Hoc (False Cause)22.7%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.4%Vox: 0.3%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.6%Vox: 0.5%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.1%Vox: 0.2%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.3%Vox: 0.4%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 2.4%Vox: 2.2%Anecdotal0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.2%Vox: 0.2%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 16.8%Andrew Prokop: 1.5%Vox: 1.6%Ambiguity (Equivocation)16.8%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.0%Vox: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 3.8%Andrew Prokop: 0.2%Vox: 0.1%Middle Ground3.8%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.0%Vox: 0.1%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.1%Vox: 0.1%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.2%Vox: 0.3%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 13.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.3%Vox: 1.8%Unattributed Quote13.0%This article: 6.4%Andrew Prokop: 1.1%Vox: 0.9%Quote-first Misdirection6.4%This article: 12.8%Andrew Prokop: 7.3%Vox: 8.8%Biased Writer Voice12.8%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.8%Vox: 1.6%Indoctrination0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 1.8%Vox: 2.7%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Andrew Prokop: 0.4%Vox: 0.3%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 15.4%Andrew Prokop: 0.7%Vox: 0.9%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…15.4%

423 words analyzed.

Speakers

1speaker23%attributed speech325writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 8 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 100.0% coverageDonald Trump • 43 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 25 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageDonald Trump • 27 words • 100.0% coverageDonald Trump • 28 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 3 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 39 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 32 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 24 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 16 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 32 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 8 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverage
Selected voice

Donald Trump

56%flagged-word coverage
98 attributed words100% of attributed speech89% writer coverage
0%30.0%60.0%Unattributed Quote+56.1 ptsWriter: 0.0%Donald Trump: 56.1%56.1%Quote-first Misdirection+27.6 ptsWriter: 0.0%Donald Trump: 27.6%27.6%Biased Writer Voice+19.2 ptsWriter: 8.3%Donald Trump: 27.6%27.6%Attempt to Sell a Product -20.0 ptsWriter: 20.0%Donald Trump: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.