With GOP wins on election maps, Democrats have a steeper climb to victory
By Isaac Arnsdorf0% Patrick Marley0%
5/9/2026, 2:00:12 AM
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Republicans are eight seats closer to keeping control of the House since President Donald Trump pushed state lawmakers to redraw congressional maps, steepening the Democrats’ climb toward reclaiming any hold on federal power in November.
Democrats said a House majority is still within reach after losing a court challenge in Virginia.
The Virginia Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a voter-approved constitutional amendment that would have created an independent redistricting commission, a major setback for Democrats in their effort to counter GOP-led redistricting in other states.
The measure approved April 21 gave Democrats an edge in four districts.
The ruling means Virginia will use the current map, drawn by the Democratic-controlled legislature in 2021, which favors Democrats in seven of the state’s 11 congressional districts.
But the court said the amendment violated the state constitution because it was not properly approved by the legislature.
The decision is the latest blow to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the House in November.
Republicans hold a 220-215 majority, and Democrats need to gain just three seats to take control.
But GOP gerrymandering in states like North Carolina, Texas and Florida has made that path more difficult.
“Republicans are eight seats closer to keeping control of the House,” said David Wasserman, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s House race ratings.
“Making Democrats’ climb toward reclaiming power in November more difficult.”
Democrats had hoped the Virginia amendment would help them pick up seats in a state that Trump won by 1.4 percentage points in 2020.
The commission would have drawn maps for the 2026 elections, potentially giving Democrats a better shot at winning the state’s two competitive districts.
But the court’s ruling means the legislature will draw the maps, and Democrats are unlikely to produce a more favorable plan given their slim majority in the House of Delegates.
“This is a huge setback for Democrats,” said former attorney general Mark Herring, who led the legal challenge to the amendment.
“It’s a reminder of how important it is to have independent redistricting commissions.”
The ruling comes as Democrats face a tough map in other states.
In North Carolina, Republicans redrew maps to eliminate two Democratic seats.
In Texas, they shored up their margins in several districts.
And in Florida, Gov.
Ron DeSantis (R) vetoed a congressional map that would have given Democrats a chance in two districts.
Democrats have filed lawsuits in several states, but the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Allen v.
Milligan limited their options.
The court ruled that the Voting Rights Act requires states to draw maps that give Black voters a chance to elect their preferred candidates, but it did not require states to maximize minority representation.
In Virginia, Democrats argued that the amendment was necessary to comply with the Voting Rights Act.
But the court said the legislature had already drawn a map that met those requirements.
The ruling is a victory for Republicans, who have been pushing states to redraw maps to their advantage.
Trump has been a vocal advocate for redistricting, urging GOP lawmakers to “fight like hell” to draw maps that favor Republicans.
“Redistricting is the most important thing we can do to ensure we keep the House,” said Rep.
Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“We’re going to fight tooth and nail to make sure we have the best maps possible.”
Democrats say they can still win the House despite the setbacks.
They point to their success in 2022, when they flipped six seats despite unfavorable maps.
“We’re still in a strong position to take back the House,” said Rep.
Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
“We have a lot of competitive districts, and we’re going to fight for every one of them.”
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