ZeroHedge70%
Rate-Hike Odds Slump As US Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since COVID In June 22%
By Tyler Durden61%
7/14/2026, 12:40:09 PM
Keywords: Cpi, Inflation, Consumer Prices, Energy Prices, Shelter Index, Core Cpi, Disinflation, Rate Hikes
BS Summary: This article contains 22 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, Biased Writer Voice, and Availability Heuristic, with Confirmation Bias as the most egregious example at 14.1% saturation with 99 hits. Analysis detected 781 faulty-reasoning hits from 703 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 35.3% and a BS Rank of 22% (16,721 of 21,179 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 78.90% of the article peer group.
With oil prices having tumbled (before this latest resurgence) but semiconductor prices soaring still, expectations were for a small 0.1% MoM decline in CPI but in fact it printed dramatically cooler, **dropping 0.4% MoM - the biggest monthly decline since COVID (April 2020)**, dragging the YoY CPI change down to +3.5% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
Both Goods and Services costs saw YoY growth decline...
**Energy dominated the decline** while Core Services rose very modestly...
**CPI breakdown: **
* Headline CPI down 0.4% MoM in June after rising 0.5% in May.
**This decline in the all items index was the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020 when it fell 0.8% .
**
* Over the last 12 months, **the all items index increased 3.5% YoY after rising 4.2% in May**.
* Core CPI rose 2.6% over the year, following a 2.9% increase in May.
* The energy index increased 15.7% for the 12 months ending June.
The food index increased 3.0% over the last year.
* The shelter index increased 3.3% over the last year.
* Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include airline fares (+26.5%, medical care (+2.0%), recreation (+2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.5%).
**Headline components: **
* CPI energy fell 5.7% in June after rising 3.9% in May, 3.8% in April, and 10.9% in March.
The energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in other indexes including those for shelter and food.
* CPI for food increased 0.2% over the month, as did the index for food at home and the index for food away from home.
Energy's decline was the largest since Aug 2022...
Core CPI was unchanged (also below expectations), slowing the annual pace of inflation to +2.5% YoY...
**Core components: **
The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June (technically down 0.017).
Indexes that decreased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, communication, apparel, medical care, and used cars and trucks.
Conversely, the indexes for recreation, household furnishings and operations, and personal care were among the major indexes that increased in June.
* **The shelter index increased 0.1 percent over the month, the smallest 1-month change reported for that index since January 2021.
**
* The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent in June, and the index for rent increased 0.1 percent.
* The lodging away from home index fell 2.3 percent over the month.
* **Shelter index** rose 3.28% YoY, down from 3.37% in May and **first annual decline since March**
* **Rent index rose** 2.84% YoY, down from 2.92% in May and **first annual decline since March**
* The motor vehicle insurance index declined 2.0% in June after falling 1.7% in May.
* The index for new vehicles was unchanged in June after declining 0.3% in May
* The used cars and trucks index fell 0.2% in June.
* The index for communication fell 1.5% over the month, and the index for apparel declined 0.6%.
* The medical care index decreased 0.1% in June after rising 0.3 percent in May.
* The index for physicians’ services decreased 0.2% over the month, and the index for prescription drugs declined 0.1%.
* The hospital services index increased 0.1% in June.
* The index for recreation increased 0.5% over the month after rising 0.3% in May.
* The household furnishings and operations index rose 0.2% in June as did the personal care index.
**Supercore CPI also saw it biggest MoM drop since COVID**, down -0.2% MoM, led by Education & Communication, and Transportation services
"**This is great news for Kevin Warsh and the Fed**", said David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation
_"Everyone expected energy to drop, but **there was also good news in car prices, shelter and apparel.
**
However, these trends might not last if renewed conflict in the Middle East lifts oil prices.
**Disinflation gets harder going forward if energy doesn’t keep falling.
**"_
If JPMorgan traders are right, this should mean a 1-1.5% gain in stocks...
Rate-hike odds plunged...
So will Fed Governor Waller walk back his hawkishly panicky remarks yesterday?
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100%flagged-word coverageDavid Russell
20 attributed words100% of attributed speech60% writer coverage
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