Southeast Louisiana readies for Tropical Storm Bertha. 'Rather be prepared than sorry.' 27%

By MIKE SMITH32% JONI HESS19% LARA NICHOLSON36%

7/21/2026, 10:16:00 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 23 faulty reasoning types, including Appeal to Authority, Availability Heuristic, and Anecdotal, with Optimism Bias as the most egregious example at 21.8% saturation with 207 hits. Analysis detected 1,178 faulty-reasoning hits from 951 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 38.6% and a BS Rank of 27% (15,970 of 21,887 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 73.00% of the article peer group.

Southeast Louisiana braced for Tropical Storm Bertha as it meandered toward an expected landfall on Wednesday, but forecasters’ predictions that its heaviest impacts could remain offshore left residents hopeful of escaping serious damage. 
While Bertha was far from a major storm, the flood-prone New Orleans area has learned not to ignore any possibility of severe weather. 
Preparations were underway to guard against potential risks, with some floodgates being closed, sandbags being filled, groceries being bought and boats being moved to higher ground. 
Forecasters sketched out a scenario expected to limit Bertha’s power. 
Wind shear and dry air from the northeast would likely slice at the disorganized storm’s structure, preventing it from intensifying. 
The shear was also expected to push Bertha’s convection to its south and keep much of the rainfall over the Gulf. 
The risk of tornadoes spinning off from Bertha’s winds also appeared relatively low, officials said, but the potential for heavy rain, flash floods and troublesome storm surge in some areas remained concerns. 
In New Orleans itself, the Sewerage and Water Board said 87 of 93 major pumps were available along with plenty of electricity to power them. 
Renewed focus has been placed on the city’s drainage system after seven pump stations lost power as the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur swept through last month. 
New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno said the city was preparing despite forecasts showing many of Bertha’s most significant impacts occurring to the south. 
"Our public safety agencies here locally, they’ve been coordinating with the state and we’re going to be ready for whatever comes our way," she said. 
Damon Singleton, NOLA.com’s senior meteorologist, said it seemed “most of the rainfall is going to be over the Gulf of Mexico.” 
“I’m still expecting showers and storms across the area,” he said. 
“I think this is going to be an all-day event for your Wednesday. 
You’re going to notice the winds picking up and the showers and maybe even some tropical downpours at times.” 
NWS forecasters issued similar predictions while saying Bertha was expected to gradually weaken Wednesday through Friday as it moved along the coast toward Texas. 
‘Rather be prepared’ 
For many New Orleans residents, it was business as usual on Tuesday. 
Michelle McMillan, a manager at Rouses Market in Mid-City, said she wasn’t worried about the weather and was instead looking forward to hitting the casino during a planned Gulfport trip this week. 
McMillan said she has taken note, however, of customers stocking up on goods that are typical mainstays ahead of major weather events. 
“I’ve noticed a lot of people getting tuna, sardines, lunch meat, bread and water,” she said. 
Tessie Wilkins was one of those shoppers. 
Her basket was stockpiled with extra toilet paper, cases of water and nonperishable foods. 
“You never know what’s going to happen in this city, so I’d rather be prepared than sorry,” she said. 
In southeast Louisiana’s coastal communities, officials and residents monitored the incoming storm but said they weren’t phased by the looming weather. 
Grand Isle Mayor David Carmardelle declined to issue a voluntary evacuation for his town, located on a barrier island off Louisiana’s Gulf Coast. 
He said on Tuesday he saw both residents and visitors for the annual Tarpon Rodeo out on the town’s beaches and campgrounds as normal. 
“We’re going to monitor the storm, batten down the hatches, the storm will come through and it’s supposed to be sunshine the next day,” Carmardelle said. 
The Tarpon Rodeo, a three-day party and important tourism event for the island, delayed its Thursday kickoff by several hours in anticipation of the coming storm. 
The Jefferson Parish Council relocated its annual Grand Isle meeting scheduled for Wednesday to Gretna. 
Donna Baker, the town’s postal worker, echoed that she wasn’t concerned about the storm and didn’t plan to leave Grand Isle. 
In Plaquemines Parish, where Bertha is expected to make landfall Wednesday, Parish President Keith Hinkley said the only area of possible concern would be the 14-mile stretch of lower Plaquemines from Phoenix to Bohemia, where storm surge of over 5 feet could flood Louisiana Highway 39. 
However, officials did not elect to issue a voluntary evacuation. 
Hinkley said as far as storms go, it’s “really kind of calm” in Plaquemines. 
‘No strangers to this’ 
Jefferson and Plaquemines parishes drained their canals ahead of Bertha's arrival, and Jefferson Parish will staff its Emergency Operations Center from 7 p.m. 
Tuesday through the duration of the storm. 
But both parishes plan to operate their government buildings as normal Wednesday. 
The Des Allemands Boat Launch under US-90 and Sellers Canal Sector Gate closed at noon Tuesday and will reopen once tides subside. 
In lower St. 
Bernard Parish outside the New Orleans area’s main levee system, some people moved boats and trailers to higher ground, though far fewer than is customary for larger storms. 
Large sandbags were also being placed in vulnerable spots. 
Plaquemines Parish Council Member Mitch Jurisch advised residents to “stay vigilant” nonetheless, as forecasts could change ahead of landfall. 
He said fishermen outside the levee protection system there relocated their boats Monday and Tuesday, a lesson they learned in 1997 when Hurricane Danny wiped out vessels. 
Danny, a Category 1 hurricane, took an unusual path northeast through Plaquemines Parish, making landfall near Buras, before heading to Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. 
“We’re no strangers to this in Plaquemines Parish, believe me,” Jurisch said. 
“Are we panicking? 
By no means, no. 
We just tell people to be diligent.” 
Email Mike Smith at msmith@theadvocate.com or follow him on Twitter, @MikeJSmith504. 
His work is supported with a grant from the Walton Family Foundation, administered by the Baton Rouge Area Foundation. 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 2.2%MIKE SMITH: 0.7%nola.com: 2.4%Confirmation Bias2.2%This article: 1.1%MIKE SMITH: 0.4%nola.com: 1.1%Anchoring Bias1.1%This article: 9.3%MIKE SMITH: 5.8%nola.com: 2.6%Availability Heuristic9.3%This article: 2.9%MIKE SMITH: 1.0%nola.com: 0.8%Representativeness Heuristic2.9%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.4%Hindsight Bias0.0%This article: 6.0%MIKE SMITH: 2.0%nola.com: 1.1%Overconfidence Bias6.0%This article: 5.7%MIKE SMITH: 1.9%nola.com: 4.4%Framing Effect5.7%This article: 5.4%MIKE SMITH: 3.1%nola.com: 0.8%Loss Aversion5.4%This article: 4.9%MIKE SMITH: 2.8%nola.com: 0.5%Status Quo Bias4.9%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.2%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 21.8%MIKE SMITH: 14.2%nola.com: 3.9%Optimism Bias21.8%This article: 4.8%MIKE SMITH: 1.6%nola.com: 1.9%Pessimism Bias4.8%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 3.7%Negativity Bias0.0%This article: 0.4%MIKE SMITH: 0.1%nola.com: 1.8%Self-Serving Bias0.4%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.3%Fundamental Attribution Error0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 1.3%MIKE SMITH: 0.4%nola.com: 0.9%In-Group Bias1.3%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias0.0%This article: 2.6%MIKE SMITH: 0.9%nola.com: 3.0%Halo Effect2.6%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 5.4%MIKE SMITH: 2.7%nola.com: 1.1%Recency Bias5.4%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.3%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 2.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.7%nola.com: 0.1%Blind-Spot Bias2.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.2%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Straw Man0.0%This article: 17.4%MIKE SMITH: 5.8%nola.com: 3.4%Appeal to Authority17.4%This article: 3.2%MIKE SMITH: 1.1%nola.com: 1.1%False Dilemma3.2%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.6%Slippery Slope0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.2%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 6.4%MIKE SMITH: 2.1%nola.com: 2.5%Hasty Generalization6.4%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.3%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 3.6%Appeal to Emotion0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.4%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 2.8%MIKE SMITH: 0.9%nola.com: 1.8%Post Hoc (False Cause)2.8%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.5%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.2%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.2%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 8.4%MIKE SMITH: 2.8%nola.com: 2.5%Anecdotal8.4%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 4.8%MIKE SMITH: 1.6%nola.com: 1.3%Ambiguity (Equivocation)4.8%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.0%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.3%nola.com: 2.2%Unattributed Quote0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.6%Quote-first Misdirection0.0%This article: 3.9%MIKE SMITH: 1.3%nola.com: 2.4%Biased Writer Voice3.9%This article: 1.3%MIKE SMITH: 0.4%nola.com: 0.4%Indoctrination1.3%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 0.1%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%MIKE SMITH: 0.0%nola.com: 1.6%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…0.0%

951 words analyzed.

Speakers

11speakers51%attributed speech464writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 33 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 23 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 21 words • 0.0% coverageofficials said • 32 words • 0.0% coverageSewerage and Water Board • 25 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 27 words • 0.0% coverageHelena Moreno • 23 words • 0.0% coverageHelena Moreno • 25 words • 0.0% coverageDamon Singleton • 21 words • 0.0% coverageDamon Singleton • 11 words • 0.0% coverageDamon Singleton • 13 words • 0.0% coverageDamon Singleton • 19 words • 0.0% coverageNWS forecasters • 24 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 3 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageMichelle McMillan • 32 words • 0.0% coverageMichelle McMillan • 22 words • 0.0% coverageMichelle McMillan • 16 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageTessie Wilkins • 19 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 21 words • 0.0% coverageGrand Isle Mayor David Carmardelle • 23 words • 0.0% coverageDavid Carmardelle • 24 words • 0.0% coverageDavid Carmardelle • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 21 words • 0.0% coverageKeith Hinkley • 46 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 0.0% coverageKeith Hinkley • 14 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 4 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 23 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 22 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 3 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 28 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageMitch Jurisch • 19 words • 0.0% coverageMitch Jurisch • 27 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 25 words • 0.0% coverageMitch Jurisch • 12 words • 100.0% coverageMitch Jurisch • 3 words • 0.0% coverageMitch Jurisch • 4 words • 0.0% coverageMitch Jurisch • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverage
Selected voice

Keith Hinkley

100%flagged-word coverage
60 attributed words12% of attributed speech52% writer coverage
0%12.5%25.0%Biased Writer Voice+18.4 ptsWriter: 5.0%Keith Hinkley: 23.3%23.3%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.