Fort Worth resets as tax rolls come in lower than projected, spiking shortfall for 2027 2%
By Scott Nishimura7%
8/4/2026, 6:05:09 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 16 faulty reasoning types, including Post Hoc (False Cause), Anchoring Bias, and Loss Aversion, with Optimism Bias as the most egregious example at 8.1% saturation with 100 hits. Analysis detected 578 faulty-reasoning hits from 1,238 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 5.6% and a BS Rank of 2% (27,372 of 27,739 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 98.70% of the article peer group.
Fort Worth’s certified tax rolls for this year grew only 0.89%, pushing the city’s projected general fund budget shortfall for 2027 to $77 million from an estimated $49 million in June, city staff said Tuesday.
That means the city will have to pare spending further or figure out ways to raise more money, such as by raising the property tax rate, staff told city council members at an afternoon budget workshop.
The city received its certified tax rolls from the Tarrant Appraisal District and three other surrounding appraisal districts July 25.
Their property valuations came in lower than expectations in the middle of the city’s budget preparation season, scrambling assumptions and triggering a reexamination.
The council was on vacation in July, and the Tuesday meetings were its first in a month.
“I wanted to get level-set with you all, the media, the public,” Jay Chapa, the city manager, told council members during the workshop.
The city’s property tax rate is 67 cents per $100 of value appraised for tax purposes.
The staff, for purposes of discussion, estimated each penny of tax rate raises about $11.4 million of revenue.
“I’m not recommending a 7 cent increase in property tax, just so you know,” Chapa told council members.
The news on the city’s tax rolls for 2027 came as Fort Worth has substantially narrowed the projected budget deficit for the current fiscal year, using savings from a hiring freeze implemented earlier this year and cuts to discretionary spending, the staff told members of the city council’s Audit and Finance Committee Tuesday morning .
Prior to the council’s vacation, Chapa set Aug. 11 as the date for a proposed budget, and he and the staff plan to present multiple scenarios then for the council’s consideration.
The council would vote on a final budget proposal in September.
The appraisal numbers “really changed where we were,” Chapa told council members.
His presentation next week will include options for further “savings, tax rates, all those kinds of things,” he said.
Total valuations for tax purposes of property in Fort Worth were $130.2 billion, up from $129.1 billion for 2025, the staff said during the workshop.
The tax rolls are largely centered in Tarrant County but also include lesser numbers from Denton, Parker and Wise counties.
Volatility in the property tax valuations came from several sources, including TAD’s change in 2024 to reappraising residential values every two years; and significant growth in successful tax protests and litigation, the staff said.
Commercial valuations rose, as did valuations for new residential construction, but existing residential valuations dropped, the city staff said.
“We were projecting something in the 2%-3% range (for an increase in the tax valuations), but we ended up about 1%,” Brady Kirk, assistant director in the city’s FWLab budget planning unit, told council members.
Mayor Mattie Parker and council members were measured in their questions and remarks, asking whether Tarrant County is unusual in doing reappraisals every two years.
Council member Macy Hill asked whether it was possible for Chapa to disclose his proposed budget and assumptions early so the council could better formulate questions at next week’s meeting.
Hill also asked whether city fees are part of the budget reexamination.
Chapa said they were.
“We’re taxing people one way or another,” Hill said.
“How does all that play.”
Even if the city raises the tax rate, it wouldn’t necessarily raise property owners’ tax bills, because of the flat and sometimes lower individual valuations.
The city staff also said they would budget 2027’s property tax valuations at a much lower level to start with, to better project losses to arbitration and litigation.
“Now that we know this is more what we can project going forward, that’s why we’re changing our projections to these type of assumptions,” Chapa told council members.
The flat rate of 67 cents per $100 valuation would generate an estimated $623.5 million in property tax revenue, down $14.1 million from the prior year’s adopted $637.6 million, the staff said.
The so-called “no new revenue” rate of 67.0416, which would not raise revenue on the same properties, would generate $624 million in tax revenue, down $13.6 million from the prior year, the staff said.
A rate of 70.3525 cents, the highest rate the council could approve without triggering a voter election, would generate $661.1 million, up $23.5 million.
And because Fort Worth has unused “increment rate” — the difference between its actual tax rate and the voter-approved rate, under Texas law — the council could add the increment rate to the voter-approved rate for a new rate of 76.9732 cents.
That would generate $736.9 million, up $99.2 million.
The city tax bills on a home valued at an average $232,925 in each of those scenarios:
Flat rate: $1,560.60, down $91.23
No new revenue: $1,561.57, down $90.26
Voter approved rate: $1,638.69, down $13.14
Voter approved rate plus increment: $1,792.90, up $141.07
This year’s budget picture improves
Revenue for the city’s total general fund budget, its largest fund and the one that pays for most basic city services, is now projected at $1.096 billion for the current fiscal year, city staff told members of the city council’s audit committee.
That contrasts to projected expenses of $1.117 billion.
The city would use so-called “fund balance” — the difference between assets and liabilities — to close the deficit, the staff said.
Revenue projections are $9.39 million under budget, primarily due to property tax protests and related litigation, the staff said.
Property tax — 57% of the general fund revenue — is projected to be $13.86 million under budget for the year at $627.5 million, the staff said.
Sales tax — 24% of the general fund — is projected to be $500,000 over budget at $263.5 million for the year.
It could come in higher after the city receives receipts from World Cup-related sales in two months, the staff said.
“We are looking forward to that,” Cristi Lemon, assistant director in the city’s FWLab budget unit, told audit committee members.
The hiring freeze and discretionary cuts have yielded about $10 million in projected savings for the year, Lemon told the committee members.
At the end of January, the city projected its general fund was $9.7 million over budget.
“Incredible effort by all of our departments,” Lemon said.
Council member Deborah Peoples, a member of the audit committee, told Lemon the staff had done “excellent work, because what we looked at last time and what we’re looking at now are two different things.”
Among other city budget funds, the emergency medical services fund, which handles Fort Worth EMS , is projected at $93.76 million in revenue for the year, the staff told audit committee members.
Expenses are projected at $93.389 million, the staff said.
Charges for services are projected at $70.47 million, $5.26 million higher than expected, the staff said.
The city would use the fund balance to pay for new ambulances and related equipment, Lemon told audit committee members.
“We still have some pretty old ones on the road,” she said.
Scott Nishimura is senior editor for local government accountability and a Fort Worth City Hall reporter at the Fort Worth Report.
Reach him at scott.nishimura@fortworthreport.org .
At the Fort Worth Report, news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters.
Read more about our editorial independence policy here .
Speakers
8speakers32%attributed speech838writer words
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100%flagged-word coverageBrady Kirk
35 attributed words8.8% of attributed speech30% writer coverage
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