BS Summary: This article contains 25 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, Post Hoc (False Cause), and Hasty Generalization, with Biased Writer Voice as the most egregious example at 36.1% saturation with 147 hits. Analysis detected 1,176 faulty-reasoning hits from 407 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 42.5% and a BS Rank of 35% (14,296 of 21,887 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 65.30% of the article peer group.

On 6 July, at 12:01pm China Standard Time, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) launched a ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead from a submarine in the South China Sea. 
The missile (either a JL-2 or the new JL-3 ) passed over the northern Philippines, arced over the Second Island Chain, and finally made its descent between the islands of Nauru and Tuvalu, in waters close to the latter’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). 
“China is just behaving like any other great power,” said Geoff Raby at the Financial Review . 
But the Chinese Communist Party has never behaved like other great powers, save perhaps the Soviets. 
More on that shortly. 
A strategic missile launched by a Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy submarine during a test in July 2026. 
Via X The missile was fired shortly after the signing of a mutual defence pact between the governments of Australia and Fiji—the Ocean of Peace Alliance. 
The pact stated that an armed attack on either party “would be dangerous to each other’s peace and security as well as the security of the Pacific,” and therefore each party would “act to meet the common danger.” 
If the two events are linked, as some have suggested, then we can surmise that Beijing was likely triggered by Article 12(3): 
The Parties may, by unanimous consent, invite any other Pacific State in a position to further the purposes and principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the Pacific to accede to this Treaty by depositing an instrument of accession. 
Beijing’s fear of a ballooning bloc was well-founded—within days (and perhaps hastened by the missile test), New Zealand’s Prime Minister announced that his government would approach Fiji and Australia to discuss membership. 
Whether or not Pacific states had been considering the Ocean of Peace Alliance prior to the launch, they were certainly considering it now. 
Vanuatu was “deeply troubled,” Palau was “shocked,” Tuvalu expressed “grave and serious concern.” 
This is just what the Communist Party seeks to avoid: a united front that might contest its expansionist aims. 
Always unsure of its military prowess, having suffered for half a century from what PLA media rue as  Peace Disease ’, the CCP needs a smooth and easy route to absorbing Taiwan. 
The PLAN’s first full-range test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the open Pacific was supposed to cow neighbouring states, not to galvanise them. 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 13.3%Aaron Sarin: 9.4%Quillette: 5.9%Confirmation Bias13.3%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.6%Anchoring Bias0.0%This article: 11.8%Aaron Sarin: 2.9%Quillette: 3.4%Availability Heuristic11.8%This article: 4.2%Aaron Sarin: 1.0%Quillette: 1.2%Representativeness Heuristic4.2%This article: 7.9%Aaron Sarin: 2.0%Quillette: 1.6%Hindsight Bias7.9%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 2.2%Overconfidence Bias0.0%This article: 13.5%Aaron Sarin: 4.0%Quillette: 7.5%Framing Effect13.5%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.3%Loss Aversion0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.6%Status Quo Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.1%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 1.4%Optimism Bias0.0%This article: 3.9%Aaron Sarin: 1.0%Quillette: 1.4%Pessimism Bias3.9%This article: 34.6%Aaron Sarin: 9.8%Quillette: 9.3%Negativity Bias34.6%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 1.1%Self-Serving Bias0.0%This article: 10.8%Aaron Sarin: 7.4%Quillette: 1.7%Fundamental Attribution Error10.8%This article: 8.1%Aaron Sarin: 2.0%Quillette: 0.3%Actor-Observer Bias8.1%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 1.8%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 8.1%Aaron Sarin: 5.2%Quillette: 1.2%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias8.1%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 2.3%Halo Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.3%Quillette: 0.2%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 2.0%Quillette: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 1.1%Recency Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.7%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.0%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 2.3%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 1.0%Quillette: 2.1%Straw Man0.0%This article: 4.2%Aaron Sarin: 1.0%Quillette: 5.4%Appeal to Authority4.2%This article: 6.1%Aaron Sarin: 1.5%Quillette: 2.9%False Dilemma6.1%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 1.3%Slippery Slope0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.4%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 23.1%Aaron Sarin: 12.5%Quillette: 9.1%Hasty Generalization23.1%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.3%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.6%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 3.2%Aaron Sarin: 0.8%Quillette: 4.2%Appeal to Emotion3.2%This article: 5.7%Aaron Sarin: 4.8%Quillette: 1.5%Begging the Question5.7%This article: 25.8%Aaron Sarin: 13.0%Quillette: 3.3%Post Hoc (False Cause)25.8%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.2%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.7%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.4%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.7%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 3.2%Aaron Sarin: 0.8%Quillette: 3.2%Anecdotal3.2%This article: 3.9%Aaron Sarin: 1.0%Quillette: 0.3%No True Scotsman3.9%This article: 16.2%Aaron Sarin: 4.1%Quillette: 2.0%Ambiguity (Equivocation)16.2%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.3%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.1%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 8.1%Aaron Sarin: 2.0%Quillette: 0.2%Special Pleading8.1%This article: 8.1%Aaron Sarin: 2.0%Quillette: 0.5%Genetic Fallacy8.1%This article: 16.7%Aaron Sarin: 4.2%Quillette: 2.3%Unattributed Quote16.7%This article: 4.2%Aaron Sarin: 1.0%Quillette: 1.5%Quote-first Misdirection4.2%This article: 36.1%Aaron Sarin: 22.2%Quillette: 13.8%Biased Writer Voice36.1%This article: 8.1%Aaron Sarin: 3.2%Quillette: 1.6%Indoctrination8.1%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.5%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 1.3%Quillette: 1.6%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Aaron Sarin: 0.0%Quillette: 0.3%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…0.0%

407 words analyzed.

Speakers

1speaker4.2%attributed speech390writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 5 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 30 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 43 words • 0.0% coverageGeoff Raby • 17 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 16 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 4 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 18 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 38 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 22 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 43 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 32 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 23 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 33 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 25 words • 100.0% coverage
Selected voice

Geoff Raby

100%flagged-word coverage
17 attributed words100% of attributed speech77% writer coverage
0%50.0%100.0%Quote-first Misdirection+100.0 ptsWriter: 0.0%Geoff Raby: 100.0%100.0%Unattributed Quote+86.9 ptsWriter: 13.1%Geoff Raby: 100.0%100.0%Biased Writer Voice-37.7 ptsWriter: 37.7%Geoff Raby: 0.0%0.0%Indoctrination-8.5 ptsWriter: 8.5%Geoff Raby: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.