Copper State Showdown: Here Are the Elections to Watch ⁠64%

By Matt Vespa⁠79%

7/21/2026, 7:00:45 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 24 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, Availability Heuristic, and Framing Effect, with Biased Writer Voice as the most egregious example at 34% saturation with 99 hits. Analysis detected 804 faulty-reasoning hits from 291 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 59.1% and a BS Rank of ⁠64% (7,407 of 20,517 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 63.90% of the article peer group.

It’s Election Day in Arizona, and we’ll soon find out who will come out bloody and battered in Arizona’s first congressional district. 
That race has turned into a complete disaster for Democrats, and it’s a must-win for them if they want to flip the House in the 2026 midterms. 
The two Democrats fighting it out have spent an incredible amount of money tearing each other apart, and whoever ‘wins’ might find themselves in a situation similar to King Pyrrhus when he invaded southern Italy during his war with the Romans. 
The showdown in Arizona one is making the rounds, with even local reporters calling the race insane. 
Democratic operative Stacey Pearson rightly called the Democratic primary a “circus,” veering into nutty territory. 
Here are other races to watch (via AZ Family): 
Governor — Republican primary: 
Rep. 
Andy Biggs 
Rep. 
David Schweikert 
Scott Neely 
Ken Miceli 
The winner will represent the GOP in the gubernatorial race in November. 
Gov. 
Katie Hobbs is running uncontested on the Democratic side. 
Attorney general — Republican primary 
State Senate President Warren Petersen 
Rodney Glassman 
The winner will face Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes in the general election. 
Congressional District 1 — Republican primary 
Former Arizona Cardinals kicker and football analyst Jay Feely 
Joseph Chaplik 
John Trobough 
Congressional District 1 — Democratic primary 
Marlene Galán-Woods 
Former state Rep. 
Amish Shah 
Rick McCartney 
Jonathan Treble 
The polls close at 7 PM PT. 
Track the results here: 
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Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 13.7%Matt Vespa: 5.9%Townhall: 5.2%Confirmation Bias13.7%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.7%Townhall: 0.7%Anchoring Bias0.0%This article: 19.9%Matt Vespa: 2.7%Townhall: 2.8%Availability Heuristic19.9%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.9%Townhall: 0.8%Representativeness Heuristic0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 1.2%Townhall: 0.7%Hindsight Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.9%Townhall: 1.7%Overconfidence Bias0.0%This article: 17.2%Matt Vespa: 8.8%Townhall: 11.4%Framing Effect17.2%This article: 4.8%Matt Vespa: 0.5%Townhall: 0.3%Loss Aversion4.8%This article: 3.1%Matt Vespa: 0.2%Townhall: 0.3%Status Quo Bias3.1%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.1%Townhall: 0.1%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 1.2%Townhall: 1.5%Optimism Bias0.0%This article: 16.8%Matt Vespa: 2.3%Townhall: 1.9%Pessimism Bias16.8%This article: 21.6%Matt Vespa: 13.9%Townhall: 13.5%Negativity Bias21.6%This article: 4.5%Matt Vespa: 1.2%Townhall: 1.8%Self-Serving Bias4.5%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 1.5%Townhall: 1.8%Fundamental Attribution Error0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.1%Townhall: 0.1%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 5.3%Townhall: 4.7%In-Group Bias5.8%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 2.8%Townhall: 3.2%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 2.1%Townhall: 1.9%Halo Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 1.8%Townhall: 0.8%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.0%Townhall: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 1.2%Townhall: 1.3%Recency Bias5.8%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.8%Townhall: 0.6%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.1%Townhall: 0.0%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 6.5%Townhall: 5.1%Ad Hominem5.8%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 1.3%Townhall: 2.0%Straw Man5.8%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 4.0%Townhall: 4.5%Appeal to Authority5.8%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 2.3%Townhall: 2.0%False Dilemma0.0%This article: 14.1%Matt Vespa: 2.5%Townhall: 1.7%Slippery Slope14.1%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.3%Townhall: 0.1%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 9.3%Matt Vespa: 9.7%Townhall: 9.2%Hasty Generalization9.3%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.4%Townhall: 0.5%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 1.6%Townhall: 1.3%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 17.2%Matt Vespa: 9.4%Townhall: 11.3%Appeal to Emotion17.2%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 2.5%Townhall: 2.2%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 14.1%Matt Vespa: 2.0%Townhall: 2.5%Post Hoc (False Cause)14.1%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.3%Townhall: 0.6%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 2.1%Townhall: 1.6%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.1%Townhall: 0.1%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.2%Townhall: 0.1%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 2.3%Townhall: 1.4%Anecdotal5.8%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.3%Townhall: 0.1%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 1.9%Townhall: 2.2%Ambiguity (Equivocation)0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.0%Townhall: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.0%Townhall: 0.0%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.2%Townhall: 0.2%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.0%Townhall: 0.2%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 0.3%Townhall: 0.4%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 11.0%Matt Vespa: 3.2%Townhall: 3.4%Unattributed Quote11.0%This article: 0.0%Matt Vespa: 2.9%Townhall: 3.0%Quote-first Misdirection0.0%This article: 34.0%Matt Vespa: 19.1%Townhall: 16.3%Biased Writer Voice34.0%This article: 9.6%Matt Vespa: 4.7%Townhall: 5.7%Indoctrination9.6%This article: 9.3%Matt Vespa: 0.7%Townhall: 0.2%Politically Left Leaning Bias9.3%This article: 5.8%Matt Vespa: 13.4%Townhall: 14.0%Politically Right Leaning Bias5.8%This article: 15.1%Matt Vespa: 5.5%Townhall: 5.1%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…15.1%

291 words analyzed.

Speakers

1speaker5.2%attributed speech276writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 9 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 22 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 27 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 41 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 17 words • 100.0% coverageStacey Pearson • 15 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 4 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 1 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 1 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 1 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 3 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 4 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 17 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 100.0% coverage
Selected voice

Stacey Pearson

100%flagged-word coverage
15 attributed words100% of attributed speech61% writer coverage
0%50.0%100.0%Indoctrination+95.3 ptsWriter: 4.7%Stacey Pearson: 100.0%100.0%Unattributed Quote+93.8 ptsWriter: 6.2%Stacey Pearson: 100.0%100.0%Biased Writer Voice-35.9 ptsWriter: 35.9%Stacey Pearson: 0.0%0.0%Attempt to Sell a Product -15.9 ptsWriter: 15.9%Stacey Pearson: 0.0%0.0%Politically Left Leaning B-9.8 ptsWriter: 9.8%Stacey Pearson: 0.0%0.0%Politically Right Leaning -6.2 ptsWriter: 6.2%Stacey Pearson: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.