Gothamist77%
Why Democrats think they actually have a shot at Stefanik’s seat 73%
By Jimmy Vielkind0%
5/18/2026, 10:00:59 AM
BS Summary: This article contains 33 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, Unattributed Quote, and Anecdotal, with Post Hoc (False Cause) as the most egregious example at 14.6% saturation with 184 hits. Analysis detected 2,073 faulty-reasoning hits from 1,258 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 65% and a BS Rank of 73% (6,020 of 21,886 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 72.50% of the article peer group.
Democrats have only held a North Country congressional seat for five years since the Civil War, but a homegrown candidate, Republican infighting and President Donald Trump’s flagging popularity are giving them hope for another shot.
Party officials said at the recent spring meeting of the Democratic Rural Conference that they’re adding candidate Blake Gendebien to a statewide coordinated campaign designed to expand the party’s congressional delegation.
Participation in the coordinated campaign means Gov.
Kathy Hochul will direct state party resources to open offices and hire canvassers in the district, said Sen.
Kirsten Gillibrand during the meeting in Saratoga Springs.
Two years ago, the coordinated campaign helped defend vulnerable Democratic incumbents and elect U.S.
Rep.
Laura Gillen on Long Island.
Gillibrand said it would give Gendebien, a dairy farmer, a major boost.
She met privately with the candidate and his wife and walked away thinking of her own long-shot bid two decades ago that ousted John Sweeney from his seat in New York’s 20th District.
“He is authentic, he's hardworking, he's inspired,” she told Gothamist about Gendebien.
“Frankly, it really reminded me of [my husband] Jonathan and I 20 years ago in 2006 running for [Congress.]
And that's it.
We were exactly like them.
He has so much optimism and promise in his eyes.
I'm so optimistic that he's going to deliver the district.”
The move comes at a time when both parties are fighting a game of inches for control of the U.S.
House of Representatives.
GOP U.S.
Rep.
Elise Stefanik cruised to re-election in 2024 but announced in December that she is leaving public office after an abortive run for governor.
The vacancy could force Republicans to divert resources from more purple districts in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island.
If the stars align, Democrats say they could pull off an epic upset in a seat that includes 15 counties stretching from the Canadian border to the Mohawk Valley.
“This year you've got an open seat, and what I would say is probably the best political environment for the Democrats that I've seen since I've been in politics,” Democratic State Committee Chair Jay Jacobs said.
Jacobs and local as well as national party leaders have endorsed Gendebien, though he faces a primary from Lake Placid restaurateur Stuart Amoriel.
Gendebien has raised almost $5 million for his campaign compared to Amoriel’s roughly $12,000.
Gillibrand said that Gendebien’s work, which also includes leading the co-operative that makes Cabot-brand cheese, gives him a unique profile.
In past cycles, Democratic candidates have had tenuous ties to the district, including second homeowners and people who recently moved there to run for Congress.
Saint Lawrence County Democratic Chair Mike Zagrobelny said Gendebien, a long-time resident of Lisbon, breaks that streak.
“The true difference with Blake is he's not a carpetbagger,” Zagrobelny said.
“He's not going anywhere.
If he wins, he's going to Congress.
If he loses, he's going back to Lisbon.”
But running for high office for the first time comes with a learning curve.
At the conference, party stalwarts from the rural areas Gendebien hopes to represent peppered him with questions and some criticism for more than an hour.
A candidate for state office wondered about the best way to coordinate their activities, given how hard it has been to connect.
A party official in the Mohawk Valley, at the southern end of the district, said Democratic committee members didn’t want to distribute Gendebien’s literature because it spoke only of the North Country, something discordant to her voters.
“Respectfully, I think you're being way too nice,” said Saratoga County Democratic Chair Martha Devaney.
“I really think you have to play hardball.”
Gendebien apologized for being difficult to contact and blamed the size of the district for the mislabeling.
He then connected Trump administration policies to higher costs in the district, including tariffs that have reduced the number of Canadian visitors, immigration crackdowns that make it difficult for farmers to find workers and attacks on Iran that raised gas prices.
“We've got international conflict, we've got international trade, and we've got immigration policy.
Three policies need to be changed that can immediately drive down costs for all of us,” Gendebien said.
It’s not clear that running hard against Trump is the best tactic for Gendebien.
The president carried the 21st district by 16 points in 2024.
The district has about 80,000 more enrolled Republicans than Democrats.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates it as a safe GOP seat.
But Trump’s popularity is waning nationally.
A recent Siena poll of voters across New York state found the Republican president recorded his lowest ever “strongly approve” and highest “strongly disapprove” measures.
And historically, political observers noted, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections.
Republicans still sense they have the high ground, and two candidates are vying for the party’s nomination: Anthony Constantino and Assemblymember Robert Smullen.
State and local GOP officials have largely backed Smullen, a former Marine Corps colonel and state legislator.
He also has the nomination of the Conservative Party, which has its own ballot line and often cross-endorses GOP candidates, sometimes serving as a kingmaker in Republican primaries.
Constantino is a political outsider.
He runs an internet printing business, Sticker Mule, but gained attention for public displays of his support for Trump.
Constantino erected a large sign visible from the New York State Thruway, beating back local Democrats' attempts to take it down.
He later erected a large statue of Trump.
And he won Trump’s endorsement, setting up a dynamic that puts the president and party leaders at odds.
Jacobs said Constantino would be easier to run against, especially if he won the Republican line while Smullen remained on the Conservative Party line.
Constantino was unconcerned by the sentiment.
In an interview, he said Democrats’ belief that he was an easier target was a “made-up quote” and said he would enter office as a friend of the president, which would help him deliver for the residents.
“This district supports President Trump,” Constantino said.
He noted he was self-funding his campaign and therefore not beholden to special interests.
He has attacked Smullen as a coward, often adding expletives in his public remarks.
He accused Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar of threatening his life, which prompted Kassar to sue.
Smullen’s campaign calls Constantino “a mess.”
Responding to the Trump endorsement, Smullen said he would continue to make his case to voters and would remain on the Conservative line.
“It is no surprise that Democrats in New York want to face my extremely flawed and unfit opponent in November,” Smullen said in a statement, pointing out that Constantino was previously enrolled as a Democrat.
Gillibrand said “ disarray and chaos on the Republican side” helped put Gendebien’s campaign on the map.
Harvey Schantz has been teaching political science at SUNY Plattsburgh, which is in the district, since 1979.
He said that the district has recently favored non-traditional candidates like Gendebien and Constantino.
Democrats, he said, need everything to break their way.
The last Democrat to win in the district was Bill Owens, who first won a 2009 special election in which the Republicans and Conservatives were divided.
Before that.
Republicans have represented the area since the Civil War.
“Due to Trump's national approval rating, the Democrats are poised to win seats.
The question is, how much influence will that have on this district?”
Schantz said.
“If the Republican coalition splits, then it's an opportunity for the Democrats.
So it's a long shot.”
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