Will Wisconsin buck low voter turnout trends in August primary? 13%
By Hope Karnopp11%
8/6/2026, 3:06:51 AM
BS Summary: This article contains 20 faulty reasoning types, including Availability Heuristic, Representativeness Heuristic, and Anecdotal, with Post Hoc (False Cause) as the most egregious example at 22.3% saturation with 236 hits. Analysis detected 1,018 faulty-reasoning hits from 1,056 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 23.1% and a BS Rank of 13% (25,215 of 28,902 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 87.20% of the article peer group.
Only about 25% of the state's voting-age population typically participates in a fall partisan primary, like the one taking place Aug. 11, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
But with all the national buzz surrounding Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor – featuring a democratic socialist and three candidates viewed as more moderate – will voters buck that trend?
It's a complicated picture, political experts say.
University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky said factors on the Democratic side – including Gov.
Tony Evers campaigning for David Crowley and last-minute viral clips surrounding Francesca Hong's campaign – could be driving voter interest, and therefore, turnout.
"Throughout the month of July, voters started paying attention to an extent that they had not up until that point," Chergosky said.
"The surge of voter attention to the Democratic primary throughout July could translate into fairly high voter turnout."
On the other hand, Republican voters could be less inclined to turn out because Tom Tiffany is almost certain to win, and the main competitive GOP primary is in northern Wisconsin to replace his congressional seat, Chergosky said.
More Democrats could cast ballots than Republicans, bringing down the total statewide turnout.
Plus, 2026 is an off year for U.S.
Sens.
Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin.
Their high-profile seats aren't up for election.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll, said he's seen voters in the poll express typical enthusiasm for a primary in a midterm year.
In Marquette's early July poll, 55% of respondents were "absolutely certain" they will vote, compared to 21% "very likely" and 18% who said the chances were 50-50.
"Without a Senate race, it's maybe less compelling to people, or at least they're not getting barraged by quite as much advertising," Franklin said.
"The other side is just that the Democratic primary had been pretty remarkably quiet until the week of [Sara] Rodriguez [dropping out]."
A high number of undecided voters – which only grew after Mandela Barnes exited the race, Franklin's data show – also "points to a relative lack of engagement compared to other recent primaries," he said.
Even in the August 2018 primary, turnout was only 23%.
That primary featured an even larger Democratic field for governor, and Gov.
Tony Evers won with about 42% of the vote.
Comparably, in the April 7 election earlier this year, turnout was about 32% of the state's voting-age population.
Voter turnout can be calculated one of two ways – using the total number of registered voters or the state's estimated voting-age population – but it's usually the latter, dividing the total number of ballots cast by 4,755,219 Wisconsinites.
We won't know what turnout will look like until after the polls close at 8 p.m.
Aug. 11 and results are tabulated – and we might not even have a clear picture until the next day.
But here are some statistics that provide context:
Early voting is lagging Wisconsin's April Supreme Court election
We can't read too much into early voting numbers for several reasons, but they still offer a baseline comparison.
For one, more voters might be opting to vote at the polls Aug. 11 based on concerns over mail delays affecting absentee ballots.
Also, while early voting remains a popular way to cast ballots in Wisconsin post-pandemic, the trend has cooled off since 2020.
In this year's April election, about 24% of voters used early voting options.
Plus, a rapidly changing candidate list could mean voters are holding off on completing and submitting their absentee ballots – but they should now use another option to return them since the recommended 10-day mailing window has passed.
Absentee voters who have already sent in ballots can't get a redo if their candidate dropped out.
"Maybe [voters] have gotten a little gun-shy about sending them in too early," Franklin said.
"That leaves me not knowing how much to make of a lower absentee rate at this point."
Chergosky added that "voters might really be starting to think about early voting in primaries differently than how they do in the general election," given the chance of candidates dropping out last-minute.
Regardless, it's clear that early voting is lagging.
As of Aug. 4 – one week before Election Day – 171,689 voters had returned their absentee ballots.
Compare that to the April 2026 election, when 189,027 voters had submitted their ballots by that time.
Early, in-person voting at sites designed by local clerks is also comparatively behind.
Of the total above, 32,548 had filled out their ballots at early voting sites for the Aug. 11 election, compared to 69,354 at the same time in April.
Early voting numbers are also falling behind the last partisan primary held in Wisconsin.
One week before the August 2024 election, 198,836 voters had submitted early ballots.
More: With mail delays, make sure your Wisconsin absentee ballot counts
Turnout in past partisan primaries averaged in 25-percent range
Here's a look at past August partisan primary turnout, based on the voting-age population in Wisconsin, using numbers from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
* 2024: 27.5% (Republican U.S.
Senate primary, two statewide referendums)
* 2022: 26.3% (Republican governor primary, Democratic U.S.
Senate primary)
* 2020: 21.1% (U.S.
House races, pandemic-year election)
* 2018: 23.0% (Democratic primary for governor, Republican U.S.
Senate primary)
Going further back to 2000, only 2002 had turnout over 20% in the partisan primary election.
Competitiveness can be a factor in turnout
Chergosky pointed out another factor in turnout: How competitive the race is, and how uncertain the outcome is.
He looks at the U.S.
Senate results in Michigan – where moderate candidate U.S.
Rep.
Haley Stevens performed better than expected, losing by one point to Abdul El-Sayed.
"That can create an expectation that perhaps the Wisconsin race could be closer than people might imagine," Chergosky said.
"There has been a surge of national attention on Wisconsin as a potential proving ground for the electoral viability of democratic socialism," he said.
"I think that has caused voters in Wisconsin to be increasingly aware of how the state is playing a role in broader controversies about electability and the direction of the Democratic Party."
More: Can you ‘cross over’ vote in multiple parties in a Wisconsin primary?
Hope Karnopp can be reached at HKarnopp@usatodayco.com.
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