Forbes46%

Northern Lights Forecast: Aurora Possible In 19 States On Monday Night 11%

By Jamie Carter0%

6/28/2026, 8:30:00 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 16 faulty reasoning types, including Ambiguity (Equivocation), Unattributed Quote, and Optimism Bias, with Appeal to Authority as the most egregious example at 24.6% saturation with 114 hits. Analysis detected 571 faulty-reasoning hits from 463 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 27.6% and a BS Rank of 11% (19,598 of 21,887 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 89.50% of the article peer group.

The northern lights may be visible overnight from a few northern states along the U.S.-Canadian border on Monday, June 29, into Tuesday, June 30. 
A coronal mass ejection  a cloud of charged particles  left the sun late on June 26 in Earth’s direction, with NASA models forecasting its arrival on Earth. 
It could cause up to a G2-class geomagnetic storm, which could mean aurora being seen on the northern horizon from U.S. states close to the border with Canada  most likely across parts of Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. 
Long daylight hours in the wake of last week’s solstice, coupled with the rising on Monday, June 29, of the full Strawberry Moon in the south, may make aurora harder to see. 
A G1 or G2-rated geomagnetic storm is not a major aurora outbreak forecast. 
However, KP 4 or KP5 conditions can sometimes bring visible northern lights to the far northern tier of the U.S., especially near the Canadian border. 
If the skies are clear, aurora watchers should look north, avoid bright lights, and use long-exposure settings on their phones or cameras. 
Cameras often detect faint aurora before the human eye can see color clearly. 
Here’s how to photograph the northern lights using a phone. 
A CME is a cloud of charged particles often created by solar flares. 
Unlike solar flares, which travel at light speed, CMEs move at up to 1,900 miles (3,000 kilometers) per second and take a few days to travel across the solar system. 
If they are Earth-directed, they can produce geomagnetic storms and auroras. 
According to SpaceWeather.com, this CME could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm when it reaches Earth. 
According to a forecast by space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Enhanced conditions are expected to return early to mid on 30 Jun due to the CME that left the Sun late on 26 Jun.” 
A UK Met Office forecast slightly ups the ante. 
“CME arrival on day 3 is expected to increase activity to Active to G1 Minor Storms with a chance of G2 Moderate Storms,” states the UK Met Office’s Space Weather forecast. 
“These most likely with any following magnetic cloud, with the risk continuing into day 4 (01 Jul).” 
Space weather can change rapidly, with forecasts revised frequently. 
The northern lights are caused by the solar wind, a constant stream of charged particles flowing from the sun that interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. 
While most are deflected, some particles spiral along magnetic field lines toward the poles, colliding with oxygen and nitrogen atoms high in the atmosphere. 
These collisions excite the gases, causing them to release energy as shimmering light. 
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes. 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 1.4%Forbes: 3.1%Confirmation Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 1.4%Forbes: 1.2%Anchoring Bias0.0%This article: 8.2%Jamie Carter: 3.7%Forbes: 3.0%Availability Heuristic8.2%This article: 6.5%Jamie Carter: 1.3%Forbes: 1.1%Representativeness Heuristic6.5%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.4%Forbes: 0.7%Hindsight Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 2.2%Forbes: 2.3%Overconfidence Bias0.0%This article: 4.3%Jamie Carter: 6.1%Forbes: 5.8%Framing Effect4.3%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.2%Forbes: 0.4%Loss Aversion0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.6%Forbes: 0.7%Status Quo Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.2%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 8.9%Jamie Carter: 5.5%Forbes: 3.9%Optimism Bias8.9%This article: 6.9%Jamie Carter: 1.4%Forbes: 1.3%Pessimism Bias6.9%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 3.1%Forbes: 5.4%Negativity Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.5%Forbes: 0.9%Self-Serving Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.6%Fundamental Attribution Error0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.3%Forbes: 0.6%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 1.3%Forbes: 3.2%Halo Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.0%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 1.7%Forbes: 1.6%Recency Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.5%Forbes: 0.3%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.0%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%Straw Man0.0%This article: 24.6%Jamie Carter: 3.8%Forbes: 4.6%Appeal to Authority24.6%This article: 2.4%Jamie Carter: 1.1%Forbes: 1.6%False Dilemma2.4%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.1%Forbes: 0.5%Slippery Slope0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.1%Forbes: 0.2%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 2.8%Jamie Carter: 1.8%Forbes: 5.7%Hasty Generalization2.8%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.3%Forbes: 0.1%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.7%Forbes: 0.7%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 1.5%Jamie Carter: 3.6%Forbes: 3.8%Appeal to Emotion1.5%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.2%Forbes: 1.0%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 8.4%Jamie Carter: 0.9%Forbes: 2.8%Post Hoc (False Cause)8.4%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.0%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.1%Forbes: 0.3%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.2%Forbes: 0.4%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 5.2%Jamie Carter: 0.2%Forbes: 0.3%Composition/Division5.2%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.6%Forbes: 2.0%Anecdotal0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 17.9%Jamie Carter: 2.6%Forbes: 1.8%Ambiguity (Equivocation)17.9%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.0%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.2%Forbes: 0.2%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.1%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 12.1%Jamie Carter: 0.7%Forbes: 1.1%Unattributed Quote12.1%This article: 6.7%Jamie Carter: 0.4%Forbes: 0.9%Quote-first Misdirection6.7%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 6.8%Forbes: 4.6%Biased Writer Voice0.0%This article: 4.8%Jamie Carter: 2.8%Forbes: 2.5%Indoctrination4.8%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.4%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jamie Carter: 0.0%Forbes: 0.2%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 2.2%Jamie Carter: 3.5%Forbes: 5.1%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…2.2%

463 words analyzed.

Speakers

4speakers28%attributed speech332writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 24 words • 0.0% coverageNASA • 29 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 41 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 32 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 25 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 22 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 30 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageSpaceWeather.com • 15 words • 0.0% coverageNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • 39 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageUK Met Office • 31 words • 100.0% coverageUK Met Office • 17 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 25 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 24 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverage
100%flagged-word coverage
39 attributed words30% of attributed speech71% writer coverage
0%50.0%100.0%Unattributed Quote+100.0 ptsWriter: 0.0%National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: 100.0%100.0%Indoctrination-6.6 ptsWriter: 6.6%National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: 0.0%0.0%Attempt to Sell a Product -3.0 ptsWriter: 3.0%National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.