CNBC56%
Coinbase trading results may fall short of expectations, according to prediction markets 85%
By Davis Giangiulio98%
7/20/2026, 12:41:50 PM
Keywords: Coinbase, Kalshi, Bitcoin, Trading Volume, Prediction Markets, Earnings Report, Cryptocurrency
BS Summary: This article contains 11 faulty reasoning types, including Hasty Generalization, Recency Bias, and Pessimism Bias, with Post Hoc (False Cause) as the most egregious example at 30.3% saturation with 73 hits. Analysis detected 426 faulty-reasoning hits from 241 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 76.8% and a BS Rank of 85% (3,220 of 20,515 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 84.30% of the article peer group.
As bitcoin prices fell yet again in the second quarter , traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think Coinbase's trading volumes suffered once again.
The cryptocurrency trading platform is expected to post a third consecutive quarterly decline of trading volumes, and speculators are also feeling confident that total trading volume will slip below $200 billion for the first time since third quarter 2024 .
Traders give a 41% chance that trading volume is above $160 billion, and just a 25% chance it's above $170 billion.
That compares to analysts' consensus estimates for $168.5 billion, according to FactSet.
Speculators are more certain volume will be above $150 billion, giving that a 99% chance of happening.
Coinbase is set to deliver its second-quarter earnings report on July 30.
The contract on Kalshi asks traders if Coinbase trading volume will be above various levels, and the outcome is resolved using information from investment research platform Fiscal.ai.
Shares of Coinbase are down more than 55% since bitcoin prices — which are off slightly less than 50% — peaked in October 2025.
Coinbase trading volume's previous declines in the first quarter of 2026 and fourth quarter of 2025 came also as Bitcoin prices tumbled over that period.
Bitcoin prices fell again in the second quarter, off about 12%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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