Daily Kos84%
A hidden sign that Republicans know they’re cooked this year - Daily Kos 65%
By Emily Singer83%
7/9/2026, 9:30:00 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 28 faulty reasoning types, including Confirmation Bias, Post Hoc (False Cause), and Unattributed Quote, with Biased Writer Voice as the most egregious example at 40.5% saturation with 269 hits. Analysis detected 2,530 faulty-reasoning hits from 664 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 59.3% and a BS Rank of 65% (7,716 of 21,886 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 64.70% of the article peer group.
A hidden sign that Republicans know they’re cooked this year
July 9, 2026 at 2:30 PM
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Campaign signs for Republican Rep.
Monica De La Cruz of Texas and her Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido stand in Edinburg, Texas, in February.
AP
Political handicappers and pundits alike disagree on the accuracy of internal campaign polls, with data showing they are often biased in favor of the candidate they’re affiliated with.
However, history has shown that while the topline numbers in the surveys may not predict the exact outcome of a race, the amount of internal campaign polls released can be predictive of how that party will do in an upcoming election.
In other words, campaigns that release more internal polls often do well in that next election, while campaigns that do not release many often do poorly.
And in 2026, it’s Democrats who are releasing more internal polls than Republicans—the latest sign that November is building up to be a bloodbath for the GOP.
Over the past week, Democratic candidates or groups affiliated with them released at least six internal polls of November’s general election, according to The New York Times’ aggregator .
Republicans, meanwhile, released just one.
The Democratic-affiliated polls covered such toss-up races as New York’s 17th District , Pennsylvania’s 7th District , and Wisconsin’s 3rd District .
In all three, Democratic candidates led their Republican rivals.
Another Democratic poll came from Texas’ 15th District , a race the Cook Political Report labels as “Likely Republican.”
However, the poll found Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido leading incumbent Republican Rep.
Monica De La Cruz by 2 points in a seat that the GOP redrew to make it more Republican leaning.
Democratic Rep.
Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, shown in 2020.
AP
According to the Times’ aggregator, the sole Republican-affiliated internal poll released in the past week was for Texas’ 34th District.
That poll showed the GOP nominee up just 3 points on Democratic Rep.
Vicente Gonzalez, which isn’t great for Republicans, given that their party just redrew the state’s congressional map to make the seat redder.
President Donald Trump won the district by 10 points under its new lines, according to The Downballot .
The midterm elections may still be just shy of four months away, but if Republicans had polling showing them ahead, they’d likely release it to try to stop the rapidly cementing conventional wisdom that the midterms will be a disaster for the GOP.
And they are not doing that.
Ultimately, at a nearly identical point in the 2018 midterm cycle, CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten pointed out how Democrats were releasing more internal polls than Republicans, writing at that time that “left-wing groups [put] out 93% of the partisan polls collected by FiveThirtyEight compared to only 7% by right-wing groups.”
Enten went on to say that was a sign Democrats were likely to perform well that fall, writing that based on historical trends, “The more internal polls put out by left-wing groups relative to right-wing groups, the better Democrats tend to do in House elections.”
That proved to be true a few months later, when Democrats rode a massive wave in the 2018 midterms, gaining 40 House seats on net as well as the chamber’s majority for the first time in nearly a decade.
A similar internal polling trend seems to be playing out now.
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#DemocraticParty #Midterms #Polling #Polls #RepublicanParty
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100%flagged-word coverageHarry Enten
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