CCJ report: U.S. murder rate drops 21%, on track for lowest level in modern records 64%

By OAN Staff Brooke Mallory0%

7/1/2026, 5:07:19 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 27 faulty reasoning types, including Appeal to Authority, Biased Writer Voice, and Hasty Generalization, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 33.8% saturation with 191 hits. Analysis detected 1,357 faulty-reasoning hits from 565 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 58.7% and a BS Rank of 64% (7,908 of 21,886 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 63.90% of the article peer group.

The United States murder rate has plummeted to what experts project is its lowest level since at least 1900. 
According to an extensive annual crime trends report released by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), homicides nationwide have fully reversed their staggering pandemic-era spikes. 
Data analyzing major American municipalities suggest that murders plummeted by roughly 21% from 2024 to 2025, marking the single-largest one-year percentage drop recorded in modern U.S. history. 
Although the CCJ report states that the projected 2025 rate of ~4.0 per 100,000 would be “the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900,” FBI data (uniform crime reports) provides the most commonly cited modern national homicide/murder statistics, and reliable, standardized national FBI estimates begin around 1960. 
The previous modern low was 4.4  4.7 in 2014, and similar levels in the late 1950s/early 1960s. 
Pre-1960 data, going back to 1900, comes primarily from public health records. 
These are not as complete or nationally representative as later FBI data  as early 20th-century coverage was limited to certain states and had underreporting issues. 
Adjusted historical estimates often put early 1900s rates higher than the raw reported figures, which sometimes looked artificially low. 
Critics of the report have called the phrasing misleading since FBI's consistent apples-to-apples national tracking starts later, and the true modern-era lows are in the 1950s–60s and 2014. 
“The United States almost certainly had the lowest murder rate ever recorded in 2025, with the FBI having data back to 1960,” stated crime data analyst Jeff Asher. 
“And the available evidence suggests that we're going to go even lower this year.” 
The massive drop in lethal violence is part of a sweeping, broad-based decline across nearly every category of criminal offense. 
Alongside the historic drop in homicides, the CCJ data revealed that 11 of 13 tracked crimes fell significantly over the same period. 
Gun assaults dropped by 22%, robberies declined by 23%, and carjackings fell by an astonishing 43%. 
Criminologists note that the data signals a complete deflation of the sudden, chaotic crime wave that gripped the country between 2020 and 2022, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted social institutions and pushed the national murder rate to a modern high of 6.8 per 100,000. 
The year 2020 also saw a significant surge in civil unrest, marked by widespread protests and outbreaks of violence tied to the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. 
Nonetheless, public safety officials who previously feared that the country had settled into a permanently violent “new normal” are now looking at unprecedented peace across major hubs, with cities like Richmond seeing a 59% drop, Los Angeles down 39%, and Atlanta recording fewer than 100 homicides for the first time since before the pandemic. 
While politicians across the ideological spectrum have been quick to claim credit for the positive shift, CCJ researchers argue that the record-low numbers are driven by a “complex, multifactorial web of social recovery and focused intervention” rather than a single policy. 
While the drop to a 125-year low is a major achievement for public safety, crime data analysts remind the public that a rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents still equates to roughly 13,000 to 14,000 preventable American deaths per year. 
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Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 7.3%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.3%One America News Network: 4.6%Confirmation Bias7.3%This article: 12.9%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.2%One America News Network: 2.4%Anchoring Bias12.9%This article: 4.8%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.2%One America News Network: 3.9%Availability Heuristic4.8%This article: 11.9%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.8%One America News Network: 1.1%Representativeness Heuristic11.9%This article: 9.6%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.9%One America News Network: 0.9%Hindsight Bias9.6%This article: 5.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.6%One America News Network: 2.9%Overconfidence Bias5.0%This article: 2.7%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 17.7%One America News Network: 15.3%Framing Effect2.7%This article: 7.1%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.8%One America News Network: 1.0%Loss Aversion7.1%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.9%One America News Network: 1.1%Status Quo Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.1%One America News Network: 0.1%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 5.8%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 4.7%One America News Network: 4.3%Optimism Bias5.8%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.7%One America News Network: 1.8%Pessimism Bias0.0%This article: 33.8%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 13.6%One America News Network: 11.8%Negativity Bias33.8%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.2%One America News Network: 3.2%Self-Serving Bias0.0%This article: 7.3%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.6%One America News Network: 1.7%Fundamental Attribution Error7.3%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.3%One America News Network: 0.2%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.3%One America News Network: 3.9%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 7.3%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.3%One America News Network: 1.9%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias7.3%This article: 3.5%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.8%One America News Network: 5.3%Halo Effect3.5%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.0%One America News Network: 0.4%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.0%One America News Network: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 3.4%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.0%One America News Network: 2.0%Recency Bias3.4%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.4%One America News Network: 0.7%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.1%One America News Network: 0.1%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.0%One America News Network: 2.5%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.7%One America News Network: 0.6%Straw Man0.0%This article: 24.1%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 5.0%One America News Network: 6.3%Appeal to Authority24.1%This article: 7.3%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 2.9%One America News Network: 1.8%False Dilemma7.3%This article: 2.5%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.9%One America News Network: 1.1%Slippery Slope2.5%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.3%One America News Network: 0.1%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 17.9%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 5.7%One America News Network: 5.4%Hasty Generalization17.9%This article: 7.3%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.6%One America News Network: 0.5%Red Herring7.3%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.1%One America News Network: 1.1%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 3.2%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 8.7%One America News Network: 10.0%Appeal to Emotion3.2%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.4%One America News Network: 1.7%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 7.8%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 3.4%One America News Network: 3.0%Post Hoc (False Cause)7.8%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.2%One America News Network: 0.2%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.1%One America News Network: 0.6%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.3%One America News Network: 0.2%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.3%One America News Network: 0.3%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.6%One America News Network: 1.6%Anecdotal0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.2%One America News Network: 0.1%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 9.4%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.9%One America News Network: 1.4%Ambiguity (Equivocation)9.4%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.0%One America News Network: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.1%One America News Network: 0.1%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.1%One America News Network: 0.2%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.4%One America News Network: 0.3%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.1%One America News Network: 0.7%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 5.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 2.5%One America News Network: 1.7%Unattributed Quote5.0%This article: 5.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.5%One America News Network: 1.5%Quote-first Misdirection5.0%This article: 24.1%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 11.0%One America News Network: 5.2%Biased Writer Voice24.1%This article: 2.1%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.6%One America News Network: 1.1%Indoctrination2.1%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 0.7%One America News Network: 0.4%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 6.8%One America News Network: 3.8%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 2.7%OAN Staff Brooke Mallory: 1.6%One America News Network: 1.5%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…2.7%

565 words analyzed.

Speakers

2speakers23%attributed speech435writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 100.0% coverageCouncil on Criminal Justice (CCJ) • 25 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 27 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 55 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 18 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 28 words • 100.0% coverageJeff Asher • 28 words • 100.0% coverageJeff Asher • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 100.0% coverageCouncil on Criminal Justice (CCJ) • 22 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 16 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 44 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 27 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 54 words • 100.0% coverageCouncil on Criminal Justice (CCJ) • 41 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 40 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 3 words • 100.0% coverage
100%flagged-word coverage
88 attributed words68% of attributed speech100% writer coverage
0%17.5%35.0%Biased Writer Voice-31.3 ptsWriter: 31.3%Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ): 0.0%0.0%Unattributed Quote-6.4 ptsWriter: 6.4%Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ): 0.0%0.0%Attempt to Sell a Product -3.4 ptsWriter: 3.4%Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ): 0.0%0.0%Indoctrination-2.8 ptsWriter: 2.8%Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ): 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.