Odds up to 80% tropical system will form off Florida. Storms possible in Tampa Bay 34%
By Richard Tribou64%
7/19/2026, 12:53:47 PM
BS Summary: This article contains 16 faulty reasoning types, including Unattributed Quote, Framing Effect, and Overconfidence Bias, with Negativity Bias as the most egregious example at 16.8% saturation with 89 hits. Analysis detected 519 faulty-reasoning hits from 529 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 42.5% and a BS Rank of 34% (13,530 of 20,515 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 66.00% of the article peer group.
The National Hurricane Center on Sunday gave a Gulf system off Florida’s coast a high chance of developing into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
Though the system is moving north and away from the Tampa Bay area, forecasters said local residents could see heavy rain and thunderstorms during the day into the work week.
In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the hurricane center said the area of low pressure continues to become better defined while its shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing.
“Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward,” forecasters said.
The hurricane center warned that people in the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued later Sunday.
The system is forecast to bring heavy rain to portions of the coast, including the Tampa Bay area, over the next several days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later Sunday.
The hurricane center, which began tracking the system on Wednesday, now gives the system an 80% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.
The National Weather Service in Tampa said rounds of gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across west Central Florida and Southwest Florida on Sunday and into early next week.
“A few strong storms will be possible with strong gusty winds and heavy rain.
Localized flooding of streets and low lying areas may occur,” forecasters said.
“There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along the immediate west coast of Florida through Sunday night.”
The 2026 hurricane season so far has had just one named system, the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur that developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana in June.
The next names on the hurricane season list are Bertha and Cristobal.
The season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov.
30.
The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes.
Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
• • •
The 2026 hurricane season is here.
Here’s what the forecasts say
What is a ‘super El Niño’?
And what does it mean for hurricanes in Florida?
What to know about river flooding in Tampa Bay this hurricane season
Hurricane forecasts are overwhelming.
Here’s how to read them
What should you pack in your storm kit?
Here’s where to start
Get Times storm alerts on all your devices
How Tampa Bay seniors, others can get help evacuating
How to handle fires, tree limbs and other hazards after a storm
Here are the lessons you learned from Tampa Bay’s historic 2024 hurricane season
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