As floodwaters rise again, Texas Hill Country bar owner relives last year’s devastation 10%

By Lucio Vasquez47% Texas Newsroom47%

7/17/2026, 7:00:22 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 23 faulty reasoning types, including Negativity Bias, Appeal to Emotion, and Biased Writer Voice, with Optimism Bias as the most egregious example at 10.5% saturation with 102 hits. Analysis detected 717 faulty-reasoning hits from 967 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 27% and a BS Rank of 10% (19,718 of 21,887 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 90.10% of the article peer group.

The voice of Johnny Cash filled Howdy's Bar and Chill in Kerrville Thursday night as friends danced and laughed over drinks. 
Behind the bar, owners Lorena Guillén and Bob Canales poured beers and greeted customers by name. 
Outside, the wooden patio glistened after days of near constant rain. 
Just beyond it, the Guadalupe River churned through Kerr County. 
About a year ago, that river destroyed the Blue Oak RV Park, owned by the couple and located just downhill from the bar. 
The flood swept away homes and killed people across Central Texas during one of the deadliest floods in U.S. history. 
Over the past week, the river rose again. 
“Feeling a little bit of déjà vu, being here again today and seeing the river the same way it was last year,” Guillén said. 
“It is heartbreaking to see.” 
The latest flooding has killed at least two people, the result of a week-long storm surge throughout South Central Texas. 
For locals like Guillén, seeing the Guadalupe rise again reopened wounds that had barely begun to heal. 
Around 4 a.m. last July, Guillén and Canales waded through floodwaters rushing across the Blue Oak RV Park, banging on RV doors to wake sleeping campers before the Guadalupe swallowed the property. 
A family of four was trapped by the rising water on a small island midstream. 
John Burgess held one of his young boys as the water raged around his family. 
“Throw me the baby,” Canales recalled shouting as he reached toward them. 
The Burgess family disappeared into the flood before he could help. 
They were later found dead. 
From higher ground, the couple watched helplessly as cabins broke loose from their foundations, as RVs were ripped from their parking spots  as cries for help echoed over the roar of the river. 
More than 130 lives were lost statewide in the July Fourth floods of 2025. 
Floodwaters completely decimated the Blue Oak RV Park in Kerrville during the early morning hours of July 4, 2025. 
The physical destruction was immediate, but the emotional toll would take much longer to surface. 
After months of rebuilding, Guillén would eventually seek treatment for depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. 
“It took a while, in my case, to realize that I needed some help,” Guillén said. 
“I have a great team of doctors. 
They have helped me this whole year to get through it.” 
Along with the RV park, the flood also forced Guillén and Canales from the home they had lived in beside the bar. 
They've since relocated to Bandera, about 40 minutes away. 
Even there, the nearby Medina River rose nearly 16 feet during this week's flooding. 
Their new home, however, sits on higher ground, well away from the river. 
“It's been a crazy year, it's been a lot of ups and downs, but this year is a lot better because we didn't lose as many people,” Guillén said of the most recent flood. 
On Thursday night, Guillén and her husband served food and drinks as they always have, while the Guadalupe rushed just beyond the patio, its swollen waters covering the midstream island that's normally visible. 
Looking toward the river today, they no longer see rows of RVs lining the bank. 
They see the community that was lost. 
Long-term residents greeted each other every morning. 
People relaxed along the river as the smell of barbecue drifted through the campground. 
In the evenings, neighbors gathered outside their RVs while enjoying music from the outdoor stage at the bar. 
On weekends, families floated the Guadalupe before stopping in for food and drinks. 
“It was absolutely beautiful,” she said. 
Floodwaters flow through what used to be the Blue Oak RV Park in Kerrville on Thursday, July 16, 2026. 
The couple doesn't plan to rebuild the RV park as it once was. 
Instead, they're transforming the riverfront into a space for day visitors, with plans for an amphitheater and a flea market. 
Future structures will be built with concrete and other materials that can better withstand flooding, and there will no longer be overnight guests staying near the river, Guillén said. 
“Now it's flooding more often and more aggressive,” she said. 
“We need to realize what we have and build in a safe way...because it will come again.” 
For a while, it seemed the recovery was finally gaining momentum. 
Then the Guadalupe rose again. 
“It was coming back,” Guillén said. 
“We were very excited a couple months ago that for the first time we were able to cut the grass. 
But we got another flood.” 
As recovery continues, so does the effort to prepare for the next flood. 
Along with a new network of gauges that track rainfall and river conditions, flood sirens have been installed across the region. 
Some of those sirens were donated and installed by River Sentry near the former RV park, separate from the state-funded warning system created under Senate Bill 3, one of several flood-safety measures approved by lawmakers after the catastrophe last year. 
At around 3:30 a.m. 
Thursday morning, sirens sounded. 
“A lot of our neighbors did evacuate,” Guillén said. 
“It saved some lives.” 
With the new warning systems in place, Guillén said she feels better prepared for whatever comes next. 
In the meantime, she and her husband are focused on keeping Howdy's open. 
Business hasn't fully recovered since last year's flood. 
“We already used all our savings, so we're at a higher risk now than last year to lose everything,” Guillén said. 
“We're struggling, but we're surviving somehow.” 
She knows the Guadalupe will rise again. 
The difference, she hopes, is that the community will be better prepared. 
“We're thinking from now on, every July, we're gonna have a flood party,” Guillén joked. 
“Let's make lemonade, right?” 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 2.2%Lucio Vasquez: 0.8%Houston Public Media: 1.7%Confirmation Bias2.2%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 3.4%Houston Public Media: 1.1%Anchoring Bias0.0%This article: 4.4%Lucio Vasquez: 4.9%Houston Public Media: 2.7%Availability Heuristic4.4%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 1.2%Houston Public Media: 1.1%Representativeness Heuristic0.0%This article: 0.6%Lucio Vasquez: 0.1%Houston Public Media: 0.5%Hindsight Bias0.6%This article: 1.8%Lucio Vasquez: 0.7%Houston Public Media: 1.3%Overconfidence Bias1.8%This article: 3.5%Lucio Vasquez: 2.9%Houston Public Media: 4.9%Framing Effect3.5%This article: 2.2%Lucio Vasquez: 1.1%Houston Public Media: 0.5%Loss Aversion2.2%This article: 1.3%Lucio Vasquez: 0.5%Houston Public Media: 0.5%Status Quo Bias1.3%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.3%Houston Public Media: 0.0%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 10.5%Lucio Vasquez: 5.6%Houston Public Media: 2.3%Optimism Bias10.5%This article: 2.5%Lucio Vasquez: 3.1%Houston Public Media: 0.8%Pessimism Bias2.5%This article: 8.9%Lucio Vasquez: 9.4%Houston Public Media: 4.7%Negativity Bias8.9%This article: 1.8%Lucio Vasquez: 1.0%Houston Public Media: 1.2%Self-Serving Bias1.8%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.4%Fundamental Attribution Error0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.2%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.7%Houston Public Media: 1.6%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias0.0%This article: 1.8%Lucio Vasquez: 1.9%Houston Public Media: 1.5%Halo Effect1.8%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 3.5%Lucio Vasquez: 2.5%Houston Public Media: 1.2%Recency Bias3.5%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.2%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.3%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.6%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.0%Straw Man0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 6.1%Houston Public Media: 3.5%Appeal to Authority0.0%This article: 1.8%Lucio Vasquez: 0.3%Houston Public Media: 0.7%False Dilemma1.8%This article: 1.8%Lucio Vasquez: 0.3%Houston Public Media: 0.3%Slippery Slope1.8%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 4.4%Lucio Vasquez: 0.9%Houston Public Media: 2.0%Hasty Generalization4.4%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.2%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.5%Houston Public Media: 0.5%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 7.0%Lucio Vasquez: 5.4%Houston Public Media: 4.5%Appeal to Emotion7.0%This article: 0.7%Lucio Vasquez: 0.1%Houston Public Media: 0.8%Begging the Question0.7%This article: 4.8%Lucio Vasquez: 1.8%Houston Public Media: 1.6%Post Hoc (False Cause)4.8%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.2%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.3%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 0.4%Lucio Vasquez: 1.6%Houston Public Media: 1.3%Anecdotal0.4%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.0%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 1.2%Houston Public Media: 1.3%Ambiguity (Equivocation)0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.3%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.0%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.1%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.0%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 2.1%Houston Public Media: 1.1%Unattributed Quote0.0%This article: 1.2%Lucio Vasquez: 1.3%Houston Public Media: 0.9%Quote-first Misdirection1.2%This article: 5.3%Lucio Vasquez: 1.0%Houston Public Media: 1.1%Biased Writer Voice5.3%This article: 1.8%Lucio Vasquez: 1.8%Houston Public Media: 1.7%Indoctrination1.8%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.8%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.0%Houston Public Media: 0.2%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Lucio Vasquez: 0.8%Houston Public Media: 0.8%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…0.0%

967 words analyzed.

Speakers

2speakers28%attributed speech695writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 21 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 16 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 23 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 8 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 24 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 17 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 32 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageBob Canales • 12 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 34 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 16 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 7 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 22 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 34 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 33 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 18 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 29 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 10 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 17 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 6 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 20 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 21 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 40 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 4 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 4 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 9 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 4 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 17 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 8 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 21 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 15 words • 0.0% coverageLorena Guillén • 4 words • 0.0% coverage
Selected voice

Bob Canales

100%flagged-word coverage
12 attributed words4.4% of attributed speech26% writer coverage
0%50.0%100.0%Quote-first Misdirection+100.0 ptsWriter: 0.0%Bob Canales: 100.0%100.0%Biased Writer Voice-7.3 ptsWriter: 7.3%Bob Canales: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

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