Gothamist77%

He fought NJ's Democratic machine, until it finally endorsed him 51%

By Mike Hayes0%

5/6/2026, 12:01:02 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 31 faulty reasoning types, including Confirmation Bias, Optimism Bias, and Post Hoc (False Cause), with Hasty Generalization as the most egregious example at 11.6% saturation with 119 hits. Analysis detected 1,352 faulty-reasoning hits from 1,027 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 50.7% and a BS Rank of 51% (10,782 of 21,887 articles). This article is worse (more manipulative) than 50.70% of the article peer group.

Something has changed in Hudson County politics. 
Three years ago, progressive candidate Ron Bautista faced stiff opposition from the Hudson County Democratic Organization in his run for a seat on the county’s board of commissioners. 
The powerful political machine had chosen to back his more moderate opponent, Anthony Romano. 
 They spent a lot of money in that race. 
And on Election Day, they had a person like every block, just handing out flyers” for Romano, Bautista said in an interview. 
Still, Bautista came within roughly 230 votes of winning. 
Now, the longtime Hoboken resident is running for the same seat again, his third attempt in as many election cycles. 
This time, the county’s influential Democratic organization is backing him. 
 I found out the day I turned in 500 petition signatures to be on the ballot,” Bautista said about learning that neither Romano nor another machine-backed candidate was running against him. 
Hudson County Executive Craig Guy, a local Democratic power broker, hailed the endorsement in March as “a remarkable show of Democratic unity and shared purpose to provide safety and affordability for county residents.” 
But some of the party’s progressive insurgents see it instead as an indicator of how powerful their candidates have become, and what may be a seismic shift in New Jersey politics since President Donald Trump was re-elected two years ago. 
“I see it as a reflection of or an observation of pragmatic political actors making practical decisions on the ground that reflect ground realities,” said Ravi Bhalla, a former Hoboken mayor and new member of the state Assembly. 
Far-left, progressive Democrats have upended races across the state, even as they’ve faced opposition from their party’s well-connected establishment. 
Last month, Bernie Sanders-backed Analilia Mejia capped off a surprising run in the state’s 11th Congressional District to win the seat previously held by Gov. 
Mikie Sherrill, defeating a crop of better-funded moderate Democrats in the special primary. 
At the state level, other Hudson County progressives like Jersey City’s Katie Brennan and Bhalla  both of whom have endorsed Bautista  won seats on the state Assembly. 
James Solomon defeated former Democratic Gov. 
Jim McGreevey in Jersey City's mayoral race by running a progressive campaign. 
Guy did not respond to a request for comment on the decision to back Bautista  or whether the county organization tried and failed to recruit a candidate to run against him. 
In an interview with Gothamist, Brennan said members of the Democratic establishment “saw that they didn't have the momentum and the progressive candidate and the progressive movement is so strong that they bowed out.” 
A fight against the ballot 
Ron Bautista came to Hoboken in 1999 from his native Ecuador at age 12. 
He spent his first 11 years in New Jersey as an undocumented immigrant. 
 I came on a tourist visa. 
And we overstayed our visa,” he said. 
“It was a situation back in Ecuador that all our money became nothing.” 
As a teenager, Bautista said he avoided wearing an Ecuadorian soccer jersey for fear it would summon the suspicions of local immigration authorities. 
He said he paid his way through college cleaning houses in Hoboken with his mother. 
After he got his degree, he got his green card and became a U.S. citizen in 2016. 
Now that he has the Hudson County Democratic Organization's backing, Bautista said he is keeping the machine at arms length, calling the relationship a “work in progress.” 
 I believe that there was a good effort from the machine side to read the room and see that we have to have a bigger tent,” Bautista said. 
Nothing has changed about his platform, he said. 
Bautista didn’t tout the endorsement on his Instagram page the way he has other high profile endorsements. 
And his name will not include the Hudson County Democratic Organization’s slogan on the ballot. 
But Bautista appears to harbor little animosity from those years fighting the more powerful members of his own party. 
 For the first few races, the fight wasn't so much with the machine as with the ballot,” he said. 
In 2024, a federal judge blocked the state’s long-standing system for designing ballots. 
Under what was known as “The Line,” candidates endorsed by the powerful county political organizations appeared directly below often more well-known members of the party running, while other candidates were cast off to the side. 
A new state law passed last year outlawed the practice and mandated that candidates be grouped on the ballot based on the office they’re running for. 
“For so many years, nobody even tried [to challenge the machine] because of how fixed the ballot system seemed to people,” Bautista said. 
‘Building power’ 
While county commissioners may seem to hold less clout than some other politicians, the boards possess real power. 
The Hudson County board has a $700 million budget and oversees all county-owned land, including roads, parks and jails. 
Bautista said he wants to use the job to guarantee free legal representation for all tenants in rent dispute cases across the county, make county roads safer and build affordable housing on county-owned land. 
“For me, the county government should be the government that tackles challenges that are too large for just one city to take care of,” he said. 
Bautista’s campaign is also part of a nascent strategy among progressives to focus on down ballot races in order to gain more power in the state  a tactic that establishment Democrats have successfully used for decades. 
“What we see as a next step for us is, can we get majorities on some of these county commissioner boards to start to do that work to put pressure at the state level,” said Sunni Vargas, political director for the progressive New Jersey Working Families Party, which has backed Bautista and two other candidates for other seats as Hudson County commissioners. 
Vargas says that the organization views the county as a “beacon for the rest of the state” that progressive candidates and policies are a winning strategy up and down the ballot. 
“That's how we see ourselves building power,” she added. 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 9.6%Mike Hayes: 5.7%Gothamist: 2.7%Confirmation Bias9.6%This article: 3.1%Mike Hayes: 2.8%Gothamist: 1.5%Anchoring Bias3.1%This article: 5.6%Mike Hayes: 3.4%Gothamist: 3.6%Availability Heuristic5.6%This article: 5.0%Mike Hayes: 1.4%Gothamist: 1.1%Representativeness Heuristic5.0%This article: 2.2%Mike Hayes: 0.1%Gothamist: 0.7%Hindsight Bias2.2%This article: 1.7%Mike Hayes: 1.1%Gothamist: 1.2%Overconfidence Bias1.7%This article: 2.6%Mike Hayes: 14.6%Gothamist: 8.4%Framing Effect2.6%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 1.2%Gothamist: 1.2%Loss Aversion0.0%This article: 1.8%Mike Hayes: 1.5%Gothamist: 1.1%Status Quo Bias1.8%This article: 3.6%Mike Hayes: 0.4%Gothamist: 0.2%Sunk Cost Effect3.6%This article: 9.0%Mike Hayes: 3.0%Gothamist: 3.6%Optimism Bias9.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.9%Gothamist: 1.7%Pessimism Bias0.0%This article: 6.1%Mike Hayes: 11.3%Gothamist: 8.5%Negativity Bias6.1%This article: 2.3%Mike Hayes: 2.6%Gothamist: 2.6%Self-Serving Bias2.3%This article: 5.9%Mike Hayes: 1.4%Gothamist: 1.0%Fundamental Attribution Error5.9%This article: 1.8%Mike Hayes: 0.5%Gothamist: 0.3%Actor-Observer Bias1.8%This article: 3.0%Mike Hayes: 5.8%Gothamist: 2.1%In-Group Bias3.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.9%Gothamist: 0.6%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias0.0%This article: 5.1%Mike Hayes: 4.0%Gothamist: 2.1%Halo Effect5.1%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 0.2%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.0%Gothamist: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 7.0%Mike Hayes: 1.2%Gothamist: 1.3%Recency Bias7.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 0.4%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.0%Gothamist: 0.1%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 2.5%Gothamist: 1.0%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.1%Gothamist: 0.2%Straw Man0.0%This article: 2.5%Mike Hayes: 5.4%Gothamist: 4.4%Appeal to Authority2.5%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.7%Gothamist: 1.2%False Dilemma0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.6%Gothamist: 0.8%Slippery Slope0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.0%Gothamist: 0.1%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 11.6%Mike Hayes: 6.1%Gothamist: 3.8%Hasty Generalization11.6%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 1.5%Gothamist: 0.3%Red Herring0.0%This article: 3.0%Mike Hayes: 2.1%Gothamist: 0.8%Bandwagon3.0%This article: 4.1%Mike Hayes: 11.4%Gothamist: 6.4%Appeal to Emotion4.1%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.5%Gothamist: 0.7%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 8.7%Mike Hayes: 2.4%Gothamist: 2.4%Post Hoc (False Cause)8.7%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.9%Gothamist: 0.1%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.8%Mike Hayes: 0.4%Gothamist: 0.4%Burden of Proof0.8%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.0%Gothamist: 0.1%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 3.4%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 0.2%Composition/Division3.4%This article: 3.7%Mike Hayes: 1.4%Gothamist: 2.8%Anecdotal3.7%This article: 1.8%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 0.1%No True Scotsman1.8%This article: 7.0%Mike Hayes: 1.0%Gothamist: 1.3%Ambiguity (Equivocation)7.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.0%Gothamist: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 4.3%Mike Hayes: 0.2%Gothamist: 0.1%Middle Ground4.3%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 0.1%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.4%Gothamist: 0.2%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 0.2%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 1.0%Mike Hayes: 0.3%Gothamist: 1.2%Unattributed Quote1.0%This article: 1.0%Mike Hayes: 1.7%Gothamist: 1.0%Quote-first Misdirection1.0%This article: 3.2%Mike Hayes: 2.8%Gothamist: 3.2%Biased Writer Voice3.2%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.5%Gothamist: 1.5%Indoctrination0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 7.9%Gothamist: 1.0%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.1%Gothamist: 0.2%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Mike Hayes: 0.2%Gothamist: 1.0%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…0.0%

1027 words analyzed.

Speakers

5speakers48%attributed speech534writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 10 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 7 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 28 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 100.0% coverageRon Bautista • 22 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 10 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 32 words • 0.0% coverageCraig Guy • 33 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 40 words • 0.0% coverageRavi Bhalla • 38 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 25 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 29 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 32 words • 0.0% coverageKatie Brennan • 34 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 5 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 14 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 7 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 7 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 13 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 23 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 17 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 27 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 29 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 8 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 17 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 15 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 20 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 35 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 23 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 2 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 18 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 19 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 34 words • 0.0% coverageRon Bautista • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 37 words • 0.0% coverageSunni Vargas • 62 words • 0.0% coverageSunni Vargas • 31 words • 0.0% coverageSunni Vargas • 9 words • 0.0% coverage
Selected voice

Katie Brennan

100%flagged-word coverage
34 attributed words6.9% of attributed speech66% writer coverage
0%2.5%5.0%Unattributed Quote-1.9 ptsWriter: 1.9%Katie Brennan: 0.0%0.0%Quote-first Misdirection-1.9 ptsWriter: 1.9%Katie Brennan: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.