Poll: Ola Hawatmeh holds narrow edge in unsettled CD 19 field 42%

By Jesse Mendoza43%

7/20/2026, 8:04:13 PM

BS Summary: This article contains 10 faulty reasoning types, including Framing Effect, Overconfidence Bias, and Biased Writer Voice, with Representativeness Heuristic as the most egregious example at 25.2% saturation with 85 hits. Analysis detected 310 faulty-reasoning hits from 337 analyzed words, generating a BS Score of 46% and a BS Rank of 42% (12,435 of 21,176 articles). This article is better (less manipulative) than 58.70% of the article peer group.

A preliminary internal poll prepared for Ola Hawatmeh’s campaign shows her with a narrow edge in a six-candidate ballot test in the Republican Primary for Florida’s 19th Congressional District. 
Hawatmeh receives nearly 13% of support, followed closely by former U.S. 
Rep. 
Chris Collins at nearly 12% and media executive Jim Schwartzel at about 10%. 
Former Illinois Sen. 
Jim Oberweis receives under 5%, former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf draws nearly 4% and former U.S. 
Rep. 
Madison Cawthorn receives just over 3%. 
Another 54% selected “undecided or supporting someone else.” 
The poll tested only six of the 10 Republicans who qualified for the Primary ballot, omitting Greg “Tex” Bukowski , Mike Pedersen , Linda Sawyer and John Strand . 
As a result, it does not distinguish between respondents who remain undecided and those supporting one of the four candidates who were not tested. 
Action Solutions conducted the survey from July 7 through July 19. 
The polling memo said the current sample included 96 registered voters and plans for another collection phase using different outreach technology. 
The report did not provide a margin of error. 
The results also show Hawatmeh remains largely unknown. 
More than three-quarters of respondents, nearly 77%, say they are unfamiliar with her or undecided about their opinion of her. 
About 11% view her favorably, while about 12% hold an unfavorable opinion. 
The campaign also tested a potential endorsement from President Donald Trump , with about 53% of respondents saying it would have no impact 
Respondents were then told Hawatmeh had used her experience as a Senior Policy Advisor in Washington to help secure federal funding for Southwest Florida water infrastructure. 
About 48% say the issue is very important when deciding whom to support, while nearly 19% call it somewhat important and 33% say it is not important. 
Overall, the survey shows a race without a clear leader and considerable room for candidates to gain support as voters turn their attention toward the upcoming Primary. 
Article reasoning-pattern comparisonThis article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 2.0%Florida Politics: 2.6%Confirmation Bias0.0%This article: 7.1%Jesse Mendoza: 1.0%Florida Politics: 1.2%Anchoring Bias7.1%This article: 2.4%Jesse Mendoza: 1.6%Florida Politics: 1.4%Availability Heuristic2.4%This article: 25.2%Jesse Mendoza: 1.4%Florida Politics: 1.1%Representativeness Heuristic25.2%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.2%Florida Politics: 0.1%Hindsight Bias0.0%This article: 8.9%Jesse Mendoza: 1.9%Florida Politics: 1.2%Overconfidence Bias8.9%This article: 17.8%Jesse Mendoza: 7.0%Florida Politics: 7.1%Framing Effect17.8%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.0%Florida Politics: 0.6%Loss Aversion0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.1%Florida Politics: 1.1%Status Quo Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.4%Sunk Cost Effect0.0%This article: 8.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.6%Florida Politics: 2.9%Optimism Bias8.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 2.1%Florida Politics: 1.0%Pessimism Bias0.0%This article: 2.4%Jesse Mendoza: 7.5%Florida Politics: 8.1%Negativity Bias2.4%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.3%Florida Politics: 2.8%Self-Serving Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 2.2%Florida Politics: 1.0%Fundamental Attribution Error0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.2%Actor-Observer Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.1%Florida Politics: 2.1%In-Group Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Out-Group Homogeneity Bias0.0%This article: 3.6%Jesse Mendoza: 2.2%Florida Politics: 4.2%Halo Effect3.6%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.3%Horn Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Dunning-Kruger Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.6%Florida Politics: 1.5%Recency Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.2%Primacy Effect0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Blind-Spot Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.3%Florida Politics: 1.2%Ad Hominem0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.0%Florida Politics: 0.4%Straw Man0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 3.2%Florida Politics: 5.0%Appeal to Authority0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 2.2%Florida Politics: 1.2%False Dilemma0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.2%Florida Politics: 0.2%Slippery Slope0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Circular Reasoning0.0%This article: 8.0%Jesse Mendoza: 3.7%Florida Politics: 2.8%Hasty Generalization8.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.3%Florida Politics: 0.4%Red Herring0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.7%Florida Politics: 1.0%Bandwagon0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 5.5%Florida Politics: 4.7%Appeal to Emotion0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.9%Florida Politics: 0.6%Begging the Question0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.4%Florida Politics: 1.8%Post Hoc (False Cause)0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Tu Quoque0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.3%Florida Politics: 0.6%Burden of Proof0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Appeal to Nature0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.3%Composition/Division0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.6%Anecdotal0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%No True Scotsman0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.1%Florida Politics: 1.3%Ambiguity (Equivocation)0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Gambler’s Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.0%Middle Ground0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.5%Florida Politics: 0.1%Personal Incredulity0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.4%Florida Politics: 0.2%Special Pleading0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.2%Genetic Fallacy0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.7%Florida Politics: 1.6%Unattributed Quote0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.1%Florida Politics: 1.5%Quote-first Misdirection0.0%This article: 8.6%Jesse Mendoza: 2.4%Florida Politics: 4.0%Biased Writer Voice8.6%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 1.0%Florida Politics: 0.7%Indoctrination0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.8%Politically Left Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.1%Politically Right Leaning Bias0.0%This article: 0.0%Jesse Mendoza: 0.0%Florida Politics: 0.5%Attempt to Sell a Product or S…0.0%

337 words analyzed.

Speakers

1speaker3.3%attributed speech326writer words
Voice mapSelect a segment to jump to its words
Writer's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 29 words • 100.0% coverageWriter's voice • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 1 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 13 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 3 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 17 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 1 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 6 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 8 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 29 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 24 words • 0.0% coverageAction Solutions • 11 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 21 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 9 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 8 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 20 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 12 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 23 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 26 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 27 words • 0.0% coverageWriter's voice • 27 words • 0.0% coverage
Selected voice

Action Solutions

0%flagged-word coverage
11 attributed words100% of attributed speech70% writer coverage
0%5.0%10.0%Biased Writer Voice-8.9 ptsWriter: 8.9%Action Solutions: 0.0%0.0%

Attribution is sentence-level. Pattern percentages are calculated only from words assigned to that voice.

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Analysis

Hover over highlighted words in the article to view the associated bias or fallacy analysis.